Your thinking that there is no increased market penetration, you only have to compared GBA generation vs DS+PSP generation. In Japan, it has been proven that there is an increase. In Europe, it has been proven that there is an increase. Only in US it has not been proven, but the trend is showing possibilities (witness 1.5 Million DS in Nov 07, which is the highest record ever for console or portable in November month).
If 160 Million is the total # for console this generation, and there is no increased penetration (I don't believe it, but let's play along using your assumption), then something got to give. Instead of thinking that "Wii got to give", why not "X360 got to give" or "PS3 got to give" ?
Personally, I think it is more likely that it is "PS3 got to give" instead of "X360 got to give". Maybe it will come to this ? 90 Million Wii (less than PS2) 40 Million X360 (more than XBOX) 30 Million PS3 (more than GameCube)
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Your thinking that there is no increased market penetration, you only have to compared GBA generation vs DS+PSP generation. In Japan, it has been proven that there is an increase. In Europe, it has been proven that there is an increase. Only in US it has not been proven, but the trend is showing possibilities (witness 1.5 Million DS in Nov 07, which is the highest record ever for console or portable in November month).
If 160 Million is the total # for console this generation, and there is no increased penetration (I don't believe it, but let's play along using your assumption), then something got to give. Instead of thinking that "Wii got to give", why not "X360 got to give" or "PS3 got to give" ?
Personally, I think it is more likely that it is "PS3 got to give" instead of "X360 got to give". Maybe it will come to this ?
90 Million Wii (less than PS2)
40 Million X360 (more than XBOX)
30 Million PS3 (more than GameCube)