How, exactly, are we supposed to supply you data for this game, when the only three likely sources, NPD, European tracking companies and Rockstar, won't give us complete data on how this is selling. NPD is also an estimate, it is not fact, so they could be under tracking for all we know. Tracking companies in Europe don't release the numbers behind positions often, they surely won't for Manhunt if it only sells 50k there. This is prediction market, we are making estimates based off of given data and how we feel the game did in absence of other data.
From that, certain people think the game sold more than you do. You have data for one month in one country showing sales around 1/3 of what you are predicting this game to sell. I believe that that this game will sell more than x3 what it sold in one country in one month. Also, keep in mind that it was out in October for only a few days (released 29 October 2007), that hardly counts as being out for the entire month, in fact, it was only about 2 days. To then sell 1/3 of total lifetime sales in 2 days seems unreasonable to me (unless your part of the Halo series).
It is due to all of these factors that I believe that this game will sell more than 13DKP projected here and more than 10DKP or less you suggest.
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How, exactly, are we supposed to supply you data for this game, when the only three likely sources, NPD, European tracking companies and Rockstar, won't give us complete data on how this is selling. NPD is also an estimate, it is not fact, so they could be under tracking for all we know. Tracking companies in Europe don't release the numbers behind positions often, they surely won't for Manhunt if it only sells 50k there. This is prediction market, we are making estimates based off of given data and how we feel the game did in absence of other data.
From that, certain people think the game sold more than you do. You have data for one month in one country showing sales around 1/3 of what you are predicting this game to sell. I believe that that this game will sell more than x3 what it sold in one country in one month. Also, keep in mind that it was out in October for only a few days (released 29 October 2007), that hardly counts as being out for the entire month, in fact, it was only about 2 days. To then sell 1/3 of total lifetime sales in 2 days seems unreasonable to me (unless your part of the Halo series).
It is due to all of these factors that I believe that this game will sell more than 13DKP projected here and more than 10DKP or less you suggest.