First, Famicom Wars does not sell in Japan. The previous Advance Wars sold only ~30k lifetime there. Neither of the GBA installments made it above ~100k IIRC. So basically, this number is relying on strong US sales and the nebulous "what if it does well in Europe" factor.
I think if you look at the kind of games on the DS that are doing well in Europe, Advance Wars does not fit whether or not it's shed the "kiddie look". European charts are very homogeneous and for the most part filled with traditionally popular franchises to a degree even higher than North American charts. In terms of DS games, Cooking Mama, Brain Training, and Brain Training 2 are the only games that have had Top 10 staying power. I have no doubt that AWDS2 could pull 100k in Europe, but I highly doubt the 300-500k necessary to justify this worldwide lifetime price could come from Europe.
In the American side, there are also several factors counting against it. It's a January release; one of the two or three worst months of the year. The AW games have not historically had legs, either. Obviously, I can't post NPD data to confirm this, but sufficed to say: a) AWDS sold the vast majority of its units within the first few months, and b) It didn't sell phenomenally. I also think that the "gritty look" might backfire a little. It'll lose the sales to kids who think it's a kids game (not that it ever was), but I'm not really sure it'll gain many new series converts. I do think some people who played the GBA installments and skipped AWDS will come back for this one, but I don't think it'll be enough to pick up the slack.
In addition, I'm not sure the online feature will be huge. As we know from the weekly NeoGAF Nintendo WiFi connection statistics, very few games have frequent use of Wifi. Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Pokemon DP, Strikers, and Guitar Hero 3 are pretty much the only games that have reliably continued to have a large amount of WiFi usage. I see WiFi play amongst friends as being popular, but I doubt a sales-blossoming community will form around the feature.
I do think that 63-66 DKP is a more realistic estimate. Please consider all of this before investing in what I feel is a massively overinflated stock. Since the game will not hit 1 million, we will never see it mentioned in Nintendo's earnings release (which generally includes a list of million-shipping titles) and so it's highly highly unlikely that the correction I predict for this stock will occur soon. I think there will be a massive reactionary drop as Japanese numbers reveal the game bombing and casual investors react accordingly, although it's telling that there isn't even a confirmed Japanese date yet.
There will be a bounce if the game does alright in the NPD figures, but given that it's an end-of-month release, the idea that it will even chart is pretty unlikely and this makes the verifiability of the stock dependent on the mercy of NPD giving it out as part of its non-charting data release to sites.
4
First, Famicom Wars does not sell in Japan. The previous Advance Wars sold only ~30k lifetime there. Neither of the GBA installments made it above ~100k IIRC. So basically, this number is relying on strong US sales and the nebulous "what if it does well in Europe" factor.
I think if you look at the kind of games on the DS that are doing well in Europe, Advance Wars does not fit whether or not it's shed the "kiddie look". European charts are very homogeneous and for the most part filled with traditionally popular franchises to a degree even higher than North American charts. In terms of DS games, Cooking Mama, Brain Training, and Brain Training 2 are the only games that have had Top 10 staying power. I have no doubt that AWDS2 could pull 100k in Europe, but I highly doubt the 300-500k necessary to justify this worldwide lifetime price could come from Europe.
In the American side, there are also several factors counting against it. It's a January release; one of the two or three worst months of the year. The AW games have not historically had legs, either. Obviously, I can't post NPD data to confirm this, but sufficed to say: a) AWDS sold the vast majority of its units within the first few months, and b) It didn't sell phenomenally. I also think that the "gritty look" might backfire a little. It'll lose the sales to kids who think it's a kids game (not that it ever was), but I'm not really sure it'll gain many new series converts. I do think some people who played the GBA installments and skipped AWDS will come back for this one, but I don't think it'll be enough to pick up the slack.
In addition, I'm not sure the online feature will be huge. As we know from the weekly NeoGAF Nintendo WiFi connection statistics, very few games have frequent use of Wifi. Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, Pokemon DP, Strikers, and Guitar Hero 3 are pretty much the only games that have reliably continued to have a large amount of WiFi usage. I see WiFi play amongst friends as being popular, but I doubt a sales-blossoming community will form around the feature.
I do think that 63-66 DKP is a more realistic estimate. Please consider all of this before investing in what I feel is a massively overinflated stock. Since the game will not hit 1 million, we will never see it mentioned in Nintendo's earnings release (which generally includes a list of million-shipping titles) and so it's highly highly unlikely that the correction I predict for this stock will occur soon. I think there will be a massive reactionary drop as Japanese numbers reveal the game bombing and casual investors react accordingly, although it's telling that there isn't even a confirmed Japanese date yet.
There will be a bounce if the game does alright in the NPD figures, but given that it's an end-of-month release, the idea that it will even chart is pretty unlikely and this makes the verifiability of the stock dependent on the mercy of NPD giving it out as part of its non-charting data release to sites.