You can go here http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/top30/1213053_1134.html (please copy and paste the list to your browser, since you could not just click on it and see the page), and you will notice that in #24, is Prof. Layton 1, at 791563, as of Jan 6, 2008.
There is a possibility of it reaching 1 Million, but it is not certain. It depend on whether Layton 2 made people buy Layton 1.
The problem is predicting US & Europe reception. I think your estimate of Europe is too high. As of today, it is too early to say that it will be a success in US & Europe. Unless you can point to other DS game in the same genre (puzzle) that are proven successfull in US or Europe to point of proven audience.
Wait 2 more months, and we should be able to gauge how successfull this game will be in US and Europe.
3
You can go here http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/top30/1213053_1134.html (please copy and paste the list to your browser, since you could not just click on it and see the page), and you will notice that in #24, is Prof. Layton 1, at 791563, as of Jan 6, 2008.
There is a possibility of it reaching 1 Million, but it is not certain. It depend on whether Layton 2 made people buy Layton 1.
The problem is predicting US & Europe reception. I think your estimate of Europe is too high. As of today, it is too early to say that it will be a success in US & Europe. Unless you can point to other DS game in the same genre (puzzle) that are proven successfull in US or Europe to point of proven audience.
Wait 2 more months, and we should be able to gauge how successfull this game will be in US and Europe.