No worries Apujanata, I never really thought you were angry or had "hard feelings" it's just an expression. I haven't forgotten we've had our differences. As for big mistakes I've made, well I've had my share of screw ups but I'll talk about one I've mentioned before, Call of Duty 4 for the 360.
Right now, I have a 7 million DKP short position in CoD4. That's not because I think it's really overvalued at this point. It's because I thought it was greatly overvalued way back when it was priced at 400 DKP. I spent around 4 million shorting it at that price and I have now lost almost all of it after it blew up in my face. But why was I wrong, and why did I think it was overvalued at 400 DKP when it wasn't?
Well, I think one reason I screwed up was because I put too much credit into past sales numbers. CoD2 only sold about 2 million on the PS2 and CoD3 also sold about 2 million in sales on the Xbox 360, so I thought 4 million would be a reasonable level to start shorting CoD4. Big mistake, just because a game sold X doesn't mean its sequels cannot sell 4X.
Another big mistake was that I didn't really know the Call of Duty franchise. FPS games are not my cup of tea so I don't know as much about them. I failed to take into account how important the return of Infinity Ward would be for the 4th title. At the time I did not realize that CoD3 was made by different developers, Treyarch, and how sales of CoD3 were likely depressed because they just didn't do as good of a job as Infinity Ward. I mistook flat sales as a sign of a stagnate franchise when in fact it was because the franchise's premier developers were just on vacation.
Lastly I think I made a mistake in allocating my money. After a degree of success you may find it becomes harder and harder to find a place to spend all your DKP. I've certainly had that problem for a while now. In the past I attempted to remain fully invested in order to maintain as high a rate of growth as possible. I was so caught up in trying to use up my free cash that I took too many speculative positions and I let some positions grow far too large and now I am paying for it. Every time I view my public profile I am reminded of these mistakes.
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No worries Apujanata, I never really thought you were angry or had "hard feelings" it's just an expression. I haven't forgotten we've had our differences. As for big mistakes I've made, well I've had my share of screw ups but I'll talk about one I've mentioned before, Call of Duty 4 for the 360.
Right now, I have a 7 million DKP short position in CoD4. That's not because I think it's really overvalued at this point. It's because I thought it was greatly overvalued way back when it was priced at 400 DKP. I spent around 4 million shorting it at that price and I have now lost almost all of it after it blew up in my face. But why was I wrong, and why did I think it was overvalued at 400 DKP when it wasn't?
Well, I think one reason I screwed up was because I put too much credit into past sales numbers. CoD2 only sold about 2 million on the PS2 and CoD3 also sold about 2 million in sales on the Xbox 360, so I thought 4 million would be a reasonable level to start shorting CoD4. Big mistake, just because a game sold X doesn't mean its sequels cannot sell 4X.
Another big mistake was that I didn't really know the Call of Duty franchise. FPS games are not my cup of tea so I don't know as much about them. I failed to take into account how important the return of Infinity Ward would be for the 4th title. At the time I did not realize that CoD3 was made by different developers, Treyarch, and how sales of CoD3 were likely depressed because they just didn't do as good of a job as Infinity Ward. I mistook flat sales as a sign of a stagnate franchise when in fact it was because the franchise's premier developers were just on vacation.
Lastly I think I made a mistake in allocating my money. After a degree of success you may find it becomes harder and harder to find a place to spend all your DKP. I've certainly had that problem for a while now. In the past I attempted to remain fully invested in order to maintain as high a rate of growth as possible. I was so caught up in trying to use up my free cash that I took too many speculative positions and I let some positions grow far too large and now I am paying for it. Every time I view my public profile I am reminded of these mistakes.