@JoshuaJSlone, Thanks for reminding me about analyzing Japan.
To go into more detail about Japan market & data : Wii version, released on Nov 22, 2007. DS version, released on Jan 17, 2008.
On Feb 17, 2008, one month after DS version release, Wii # is 510,465, and DS # is 221,540. On Jun 23, 2008, the cut off date for Famitsu Top 100 H1 2008, Wii # is 561,003, and DS # is 325,647. Means the delta is : 50,538 for Wii version and 104,107 for DS Version.
Of course, above comparison might not be good, since DS version is only one month old by Feb 17, while Wii version is 3 month by Feb 17.
Difference analysis can be done using 3 months after launch : From Feb 18 (3 months after launch) to Jun 23 (18 weeks), weekly rate is 2.8K / week for Wii From Apr 13 (3 months after launch) to Jun 23 (10 weeks), weekly rate is 3.2K / week for DS.
I agree with Joshua's statement, that DS vs Wii version is about 50:50 in Q2 2008.
This means, we should use 45:55 instead of 40:60 to estimate the DS vs Wii share. Using previous analysis, 45:55 bring us to 4.05 Million for DS, and 4.95 Million to Wii (for condition as of NOW). To calculate GLS, if we think that Olympic (August 8, 2008) will bring another 10% - 20% sales to this game, then GLS should be 4.86 for DS and 5.9 for Wii (I use 20% increase).
Which mean : - correct GLS price of Wii version - DS version is underpriced (3.28 Million vs. 4.86 Million), or translated : 48% profit Margin for this.
I am going to invest more in this stock. 4 Million is still far away.
4
Thanks for reminding me about analyzing Japan.
To go into more detail about Japan market & data :
Wii version, released on Nov 22, 2007. DS version, released on Jan 17, 2008.
On Feb 17, 2008, one month after DS version release, Wii # is 510,465, and DS # is 221,540. On Jun 23, 2008, the cut off date for Famitsu Top 100 H1 2008, Wii # is 561,003, and DS # is 325,647.
Means the delta is : 50,538 for Wii version and 104,107 for DS Version.
Of course, above comparison might not be good, since DS version is only one month old by Feb 17, while Wii version is 3 month by Feb 17.
Difference analysis can be done using 3 months after launch :
From Feb 18 (3 months after launch) to Jun 23 (18 weeks), weekly rate is 2.8K / week for Wii
From Apr 13 (3 months after launch) to Jun 23 (10 weeks), weekly rate is 3.2K / week for DS.
I agree with Joshua's statement, that DS vs Wii version is about 50:50 in Q2 2008.
This means, we should use 45:55 instead of 40:60 to estimate the DS vs Wii share. Using previous analysis, 45:55 bring us to 4.05 Million for DS, and 4.95 Million to Wii (for condition as of NOW). To calculate GLS, if we think that Olympic (August 8, 2008) will bring another 10% - 20% sales to this game, then GLS should be 4.86 for DS and 5.9 for Wii (I use 20% increase).
Which mean :
- correct GLS price of Wii version
- DS version is underpriced (3.28 Million vs. 4.86 Million), or translated : 48% profit Margin for this.
I am going to invest more in this stock. 4 Million is still far away.