I think this stock is overpriced, and I have shorted it.
Reason : - This game is doing very bad in Japan. - This game is not doing well in US (only get 39K sales in NPD Jan 08, despite having almost full 4 weeks to sell, since launch date of Jan 8, 2008). - VGC overtrack US sales of this game significantly (first 4 weeks according to VGC is 100K after adjustmen from America to US, while it is only 39K according to NPD). This means VGC overtrack it by 60%, increasing from 39K to 100K. - There is no proof of good Europe sales yet (this game didn't / hadn't cross the 100K sales barrier in UK)
My estimate for the right price of this stock : 20K Japan (same as VGC) + 100K Americana (adjusted from VGC's 260K Americana figure) + 150K Europe (since Sonic are more famous in Europe compared to US) = 270K or 27 DKP.
Anyone see any problem / mistake with my analysis, especially the target price ? I am forced to refer to VGC, since there is no other source for data (Famitsu/ Media Create doesn't have it, NPD only for Jan data, no data from Europe).
2
Reason :
- This game is doing very bad in Japan.
- This game is not doing well in US (only get 39K sales in NPD Jan 08, despite having almost full 4 weeks to sell, since launch date of Jan 8, 2008).
- VGC overtrack US sales of this game significantly (first 4 weeks according to VGC is 100K after adjustmen from America to US, while it is only 39K according to NPD). This means VGC overtrack it by 60%, increasing from 39K to 100K.
- There is no proof of good Europe sales yet (this game didn't / hadn't cross the 100K sales barrier in UK)
My estimate for the right price of this stock :
20K Japan (same as VGC) + 100K Americana (adjusted from VGC's 260K Americana figure) + 150K Europe (since Sonic are more famous in Europe compared to US) = 270K or 27 DKP.
Anyone see any problem / mistake with my analysis, especially the target price ? I am forced to refer to VGC, since there is no other source for data (Famitsu/ Media Create doesn't have it, NPD only for Jan data, no data from Europe).