Not really, you can make a reasonably accurate prediction if you are prepared to look up all the past data, trends, forcast shipment numbers, pricing options etc. I don't exactly do this and my long on December Wii is basically a (very large - 10mil) gamble, but it can be done. If it were truly a gamble then we wouldn't see the same people winning fairly consistantly.
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Not really, you can make a reasonably accurate prediction if you are prepared to look up all the past data, trends, forcast shipment numbers, pricing options etc. I don't exactly do this and my long on December Wii is basically a (very large - 10mil) gamble, but it can be done. If it were truly a gamble then we wouldn't see the same people winning fairly consistantly.