Final Fantasy games for the Playstation have always had 40-50% of their lifetime sales come from Japan (ranging from 2.5 to 4 million units).
The PS3 has floundered in Japan in a big way. For historical comparison:
FF7 was released 2 years into the PS lifecycle with 5 million consoles already in Japan. Also boosted system sales.
FF10 was released 1 years into the PS2 lifecycle with just under 5 million consoles installed. Impact on system sales, but much smaller.
If it's released by the end of this year, Sony will be lucky to have 2 million systems in Japan. Plus a recent interview hinted that SquareEnix may have to multi-plat to recover costs (sony exec, http://uk.gamespot.com/news/6167864.html ).
I think it's important to consider that Japanese sales could potentially be cut in half (if not more) from the usual FF sales. That would leave this game overpriced and that's not even considering how much smaller the American and European markets will be for the PS3 compared to ths PS/PS2.
3
The PS3 has floundered in Japan in a big way. For historical comparison:
FF7 was released 2 years into the PS lifecycle with 5 million consoles already in Japan. Also boosted system sales.
FF10 was released 1 years into the PS2 lifecycle with just under 5 million consoles installed. Impact on system sales, but much smaller.
If it's released by the end of this year, Sony will be lucky to have 2 million systems in Japan. Plus a recent interview hinted that SquareEnix may have to multi-plat to recover costs (sony exec, http://uk.gamespot.com/news/6167864.html ).
I think it's important to consider that Japanese sales could potentially be cut in half (if not more) from the usual FF sales. That would leave this game overpriced and that's not even considering how much smaller the American and European markets will be for the PS3 compared to ths PS/PS2.