MLB 2K7 is not sold in Japan (they have enough baseball games as it is); it's not sold in Europe (little to no interest); so the only major market for this is NA. Looking at VGC, it only sold 31,594 so far (rank 194) in US. It's about to fall off the top 200.
A new edition comes out every year, so I expect the life of this title to be only about a year or so. At the current rate, the sales figure will drop below 1,000 in a matter of weeks. Let's assume it's going to sell an average of 4,000 a month (1K/week) over the next 7 months till the end of the year, that's 28,000.
31,594 (current sales figure) + 28,000 (estimated sales for the rest of the year) = 59,594
It will only sell roughly 60K in 2007. It needs to sell another 68K to meet its current prediction. By then, MLB 2K8 will be out, and this game will become obsolete.
Let's look at this another way, the game needs another 96,000 to meet its current prediction of 128,000. If we assume that the sales figure stays the same (which it won't) from now on, we are looking at:
96,000 (predicted future sales) / 1344 (assumed number of copies sold per week) = 71
It needs another 71 weeks to sell 96,000. That's almost 1 year and 5 months. It will take this game to sell at the current rate until October 2008 to reach 128,000! If MLB 2K8 doesn't come out by then, I don't know what will.
The only way this game will sell 128,000 copies before MLB 2K8 comes out (let's say March, same as this year, and I'm assuming MLB 2K8 will be released on PSP) is for it to sell 2,462 (96,000 / 39 weeks) per week until March 08. Currently it's selling 1,344. It's not going to make it.
Whichever way you look at it, it will not reach the current prediction, even if we take into account the unknown sales figure for Canada. It's only going to sell max 60K over its lifetime.
There is still a lot of room to short. The price will need to be cut by at least another 40%.
6
http://vgchartz.com/aweekly.php?page=4&date=39222
A new edition comes out every year, so I expect the life of this title to be only about a year or so. At the current rate, the sales figure will drop below 1,000 in a matter of weeks. Let's assume it's going to sell an average of 4,000 a month (1K/week) over the next 7 months till the end of the year, that's 28,000.
31,594 (current sales figure) + 28,000 (estimated sales for the rest of the year) = 59,594
It will only sell roughly 60K in 2007. It needs to sell another 68K to meet its current prediction. By then, MLB 2K8 will be out, and this game will become obsolete.
Let's look at this another way, the game needs another 96,000 to meet its current prediction of 128,000. If we assume that the sales figure stays the same (which it won't) from now on, we are looking at:
96,000 (predicted future sales) / 1344 (assumed number of copies sold per week) = 71
It needs another 71 weeks to sell 96,000. That's almost 1 year and 5 months. It will take this game to sell at the current rate until October 2008 to reach 128,000! If MLB 2K8 doesn't come out by then, I don't know what will.
The only way this game will sell 128,000 copies before MLB 2K8 comes out (let's say March, same as this year, and I'm assuming MLB 2K8 will be released on PSP) is for it to sell 2,462 (96,000 / 39 weeks) per week until March 08. Currently it's selling 1,344. It's not going to make it.
Whichever way you look at it, it will not reach the current prediction, even if we take into account the unknown sales figure for Canada. It's only going to sell max 60K over its lifetime.
There is still a lot of room to short. The price will need to be cut by at least another 40%.