@Powertrade, I would not cap it off at 16 million. A title for this generation of Pokemon RPG is probably coming soon and usually reinvigorates interest in the other titles of the same generation. I would say 17 million at the highest would be a better cap.
According to Nintendo's Fiscal Year report supplement Pokemon Diamond/Pearl has sold 14.77 million copies through March 08. The stock should come down to about 16 million at the highest.
@pilias_simber, it appears this and many big name stocks are finally in for a correction. Interesting that this title has actually sold 12.1 million already. We are currently pricing the game at 16 million, which means we expect the game to only be 75% through its sales potential. This could be possible.
@Laoldar, With nearly a year of sales in Japan already, and shipped to major markets around the globe, we can assume that a third version for this generation is probably now in the works. I would expect it out in April/May in Japan and Sept/Oct in North America. Japan has just released Pokemon Mysterious (Mystery)Dungeon 2: Time/Darkness Exploration Team (VG Chartz Japanese sales). This is intended to keep the interest running high for the under 12 demographic. Once the sales wane for PKMN MD2, as these are merely stop gaps between the major releases, we will probably see Pokemon Opal or whatever name they'll decide on released mid-Spring 08 for Japan.
Clarification on Pokemon Diamond/Pearl accounting has been requested:
Currently our research indicates that Pokemon games are generally released in two sister games, and then later rereleased under a new title. For example, Pokemon Red, Green, and Blue were then complemented by Pokemon Yellow. Pokemon Yellow was a remake of the original games with certain changes to make it more like the TV show. Pokemon Gold and Silver were later remade into Pokemon Crystal.
Our research indicates that these later games are not simply rereleases, like a Greatest Hits or Platinum Hits or Game of the Year label. In this case, a third Pokemon game to Pokemon Diamond and Pearl would not be included in the sales of the Pokemon Diamond/Pearl stock.
According to VGchartz, Red/Blue sold 30 million worldwide, while Yellow sold over 14 million itself. The "special" edition of each generation usually sells about 30-40% of the amount of the original colours.
Every generation has had a seperate SKU released a couple of years later with changes/additions. Perhaps the admins could clarify how they would treat another Pokemon edition. Of course, since it'll be a while before such an edition comes out, the site might not even be trading in this stock then so it's probably a redundant point.
If we are going to include the later edition in this price it should take a 600-800 point jump then.
@Laoldar, if the 24 million sales we see for red/blue include yellow, then I would assume Pokemon Diamond/Pearl would include their special edition as well. Furthermore, we have always grouped Collector's Editions, Director's Cuts, Game of The Year version, etc all into the forecast for the product. It is essentialy the same core game.
Every generation of Pokemon has had a third "special" version that comes out sometime after, usually with a new Pokemon to collect or some new feature. Red/Blue had Yellow Gold/Silver had Crystal Ruby/Sapphire had Emerald
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I would not cap it off at 16 million. A title for this generation of Pokemon RPG is probably coming soon and usually reinvigorates interest in the other titles of the same generation. I would say 17 million at the highest would be a better cap.