MLB 2K7 is not sold in Japan (they have enough baseball games as it is); it's not sold in Europe (little to no interest); so the only major market for this is NA. Looking at VGC, it only sold 31,594 so far (rank 194) in US. It's about to fall off the top 200.
A new edition comes out every year, so I expect the life of this title to be only about a year or so. At the current rate, the sales figure will drop below 1,000 in a matter of weeks. Let's assume it's going to sell an average of 4,000 a month (1K/week) over the next 7 months till the end of the year, that's 28,000.
31,594 (current sales figure) + 28,000 (estimated sales for the rest of the year) = 59,594
It will only sell roughly 60K in 2007. It needs to sell another 68K to meet its current prediction. By then, MLB 2K8 will be out, and this game will become obsolete.
Let's look at this another way, the game needs another 96,000 to meet its current prediction of 128,000. If we assume that the sales figure stays the same (which it won't) from now on, we are looking at:
96,000 (predicted future sales) / 1344 (assumed number of copies sold per week) = 71
It needs another 71 weeks to sell 96,000. That's almost 1 year and 5 months. It will take this game to sell at the current rate until October 2008 to reach 128,000! If MLB 2K8 doesn't come out by then, I don't know what will.
The only way this game will sell 128,000 copies before MLB 2K8 comes out (let's say March, same as this year, and I'm assuming MLB 2K8 will be released on PSP) is for it to sell 2,462 (96,000 / 39 weeks) per week until March 08. Currently it's selling 1,344. It's not going to make it.
Whichever way you look at it, it will not reach the current prediction, even if we take into account the unknown sales figure for Canada. It's only going to sell max 60K over its lifetime.
There is still a lot of room to short. The price will need to be cut by at least another 40%.
Week over week sales continue to drop another 13% to 1,344 for the week and 31,594 US (VG) + let's add 5% for Canada (I don't think is sells proportional to population due to the relative lack of interest in baseball in Canada) so add 1600 to the total sales for a combined total of approx 33,200 ... Current DKP is calling for another 100,000 units to be sold! Game needs to continue being shorted.
At this sell rate and considering it is a game that will only sell in 2007 (due to the nature of sports games) it will be a stretch to make it to 100k sold. Great opportunity to earn some DKP going short here.
Going through the latest VGchartz.com numbers, it seems to me that there are now a large amount of small stocks that despite their low denomination are still vastly overvalued. I believe many of these stocks have been overlooked because of their small DKP value but deserve to go down by a large percentage, many as much as 40-50%.
Among the overvalued is MLB 2K7 for the PSP. This title has sold 28,737 copies in North America since it's 2/26 release, with 1694 copies sold last week.
Let's be very generous in our projections and say sales never slow down at all for the next 52 weeks and add 88,088 (52*1694) copies to the total. That sum comes to 116,825 which means this title is still overvalued by 36% even if sales never slow down for the rest of the year.
There are a large number of these type of small denomination/overvalued stocks like this now on the exchange. Another example is Call of Duty: Roads to Victory (PSP), which was an excellent find by kspraydad, and also deserves to be shorted. But in my opinion there are many others just like these two and I have once again almost gone entirely short on the market, and yes that includes MLB 2K7 (PSP).
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As per my previous post this game will not reach 67k sold (6.7DKP).
It is STILL priced at 8.28 DKP and thus could easily shift another 1.58DKP down (thats a 19% drop).