My limited understanding is that there is no price cap so if you buy shares of it you are assuming that others are willing to buy it at an even higher price because they thing it will view well. No one believe that the game will actually get above 100% they think people will keep buying it up because the game will review well. Zelda games do have that sort of reputation.
I would go by the blog update which states 14 days after the game is released. Right now there isn't a single review of the game based off of the localized version for America, so I would expect a lot of reviews to hit a few days before this title launches.
The lowest review on the site currently (EuroGamer) really shouldn't be up anyways...in the first paragraph they describe how: "The game we've struggled through in Japanese, with the aid of a dog-eared printout from GameFAQs" I think we can agree that you're not going to get an accurate view of a game through a rough translation and reading a walkthrough. After reading their review, they would give 10/10 to a version where they could actually understand the dialogue.
@kspraydad, I think the one week thing was for Halo 3. I think they said they are experimenting different ways to expire the contracts to see which way is best. I think the idea with freezing it was preventing trading on actual reviews info but that is likely not going to work since reviews can come out basically anytime. I think there were also mumbles about how the future should not expire 3 days after or something.
According to the summary of the future it says that it will stop trading 1 week before release (ie Sept 24th)...this is contrary to what it says in the BLOG So...which is it? I am trading on the assumption that the ACTUAL TRADING PAGE that MOST people would go by says that trading stops 1 week before release. Thus I am expecting there not to be 20+ reviews....
For one thing, there will probably be a few dozen other reviews posted. Twilight Princess had 72 reviews. This won't cash out until mid October.
Second, the reviews already up are from places that are a bit more obscure, and look to be European. Look at the 100% reviews for Twilight Princess/Wind Waker and you'll see that they have yet to review the game.
This game will easily have 30-40+ reviews before the future cashes out (if not twice that), so I wouldn't put much stock in the first few.
I agree the September futures on Zelda were definitely overvalued at 1.4 million. I can't believe I missed the IPO on this one, very well played Starless. I'll have to pay more attention next time.
1
My limited understanding is that there is no price cap so if you buy shares of it you are assuming that others are willing to buy it at an even higher price because they thing it will view well. No one believe that the game will actually get above 100% they think people will keep buying it up because the game will review well. Zelda games do have that sort of reputation.