Considering its now obvious that predicted numbers are not the end all be all for what sales are likely to be I think it may be safe to expect this game to probably exceed its projected numbers as well.
Considering that it will all but certainly be shipping with the new Wii Zapper, and people are likely going to buy it like just for that and there seems to be very strong demand for the Wii Zapper, I find it likely this may take on a Wii Play like effect and sell a ton of units simply so people can get the Zapper, and the game will be an added bonus.
@rikitikitik, I think their shipment numbers are tied to the amount of orders they're receiving from retail.
About your numbers for RE 4, the game just launched in Europe, if it made the top 10 it was on 2 days of sales. So your 100k estimate seems like a completely random number since there is almost no data yet. Japan most likely will get to at least 100k lifetime sales (VGCharts has it at 82k now and still selling 6k a week, so 100k seems low taking those numbers into account) and if RE 4 manages to sell 150k in it's first 3 weeks in the US then reaching 300-400k lifetime sales in the US is the likely scenario. So I'm pretty sure those RE 4 numbers will turn out to be very conservative estimations and I have no reason to believe the Umbrella Chronicles estimations are any different.
@boontje, Their shipment numbers are tied to their estimates, so it's not all that they are.
RE4 Wii is ~80k in Japan, and only performing well in two PAL regions at the moment (UK and Germany, both at 4th spot), so let's say 100k. That gives 33 DKP worldwide. The 420k estimated sales looks spot on, so Capcom's estimate for RE:UC has a great chance of being spot on as well.
About those estimations... that is exactly what they are. Nothing more than that, cause also Capcom doesn't know whether the public will buy their games or not. All they can do is compare it to sales data on comparable platforms/games and hope those will be a good fit for sales patterns of future games. Fact is though that a similair game hasn't been released yet on Wii and it is yet to see how popular such a title will be among Wii owners. Btw, if VGcharts numbers for RE 4 Wii are supported by the next NPD numbers then it seems like that title will sell around 150k units in its first month and Capcom's estimation for RE 4 Wii might already be met worldwide by then. So if those numbers show Capcom underestimated RE 4 sales, isn't it likely that they underestimated sales for Umbrella Chronicals as well? Personally I think the success of RE 4 will be far more telling about the success of Umbrella Chronicals than some sales estimation from Capcom on a title they haven't even set a release date for.
completely agree, i shorted this as soon as this news came out only for it to be bought upwards constantly. I had to get out when the new marketmaker came in cos i could easily make money elsewhere. If they epect to sell only 620k then they will ship only a fraction more than that because they wont ship games they won't sell because that will just be wasting money. Unless demand is huge they'll just let sales go til the shops are out. So if the 620 is a sell prediction they mite produce more and it mite at most hit 720k but if its ship then it will be a lot closer to 620k and could even be below it depending on demand. Given this is a Wii game with a family based audience I can't see this gae selling as well as we are predicting here
Just noticed how overvalued this stock has become based on the comments regarding Capcom's shipment targets. Umbrella Chronicles is down for the day, but it sounds like an ever steeper correction is warranted. The expect to ship/sell 620k, and the forecast is trading at 106 DKP (1.06 million)?? Who keeps buying this up?
what the hell is going on with this stock? What evidence is there for this to rise 32% today. I know the new system means greater movement but someone is buying this like crazy. If they're buying uot of a short then they are very foolish as it's losing them money given the steep rise. If they are buying for a long position then I can't understand it. Yes saint was right that its in their interest to predict low but if their analyst predicts half of what the game actually sells then what use is he as an analyst at all. He's not gonna risk his job on one game. Even if he was given orders by the powers that be in capcom his reputation outside the company is tarnished
of course they are going to project low, they are a publicly traded company... If they go and tell their shareholders "We are going to sell 5 million copies of this game" and they only sell 4.5 million, their stock price goes down. if however, they tell their shareholders "we are going to sell 500k copies" and they actually sell 1 million, even though the actual sales are lower than the previous example, their stock goes up.
It is the best business practice, they need to always undercut what they think they can do.
As far as this game itself, i figure, you have a whole lot of Wii consoles out there, millions, and not many adult oriented games like resident evil, especially games with the reputation of resident evil, i think it will do pretty well.
During Capcom’s 2007 Fiscal Year results meeting, Capcom, this game's publisher, revealed their sales projections for a number of games. They're expecting this game to sell 620K, nearly half the current stock price. I feel this game's stock is now very overvalued. No one knows this game better than Capcom.
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