I think this game could do quite well as long as there is some marketing put behind it. Personally I've been holding off on playing the Original Trilogy because I want to wait for the Complete version on the Wii (as long as the controls are good).
Cute Lego characters and a great SW license coupled with a proven franchise? Sounds like a great mix for a successful Wii game.
1) The Wii version is definitive using light saber controls.
2) Kids have Wiis not PS3s and Xboxen
3) The first Lego Star Wars sold around 3.2 million copies, while Lego Star Wars: The Original Trilogy sold around 1.68 million copies.
4) Novemeber release.
That's my logic and apparently there are a few analysts that agree with me. Now buyers don't need to take our advise but I think its pretty sound to expect this game to match previous sales.
@zeromous, I am a bit concerned about this stock, isn't this just a repackaging of previously released LEGO Star Wars games? This title is also multi-platform...we are forecasting this like it is a Wii-exclusive, which it is not. It's just that only the Wii version is listed on the simExchange. I can maybe accept 2 million copies across all platforms, but not on the Wii alone.
Just bumping this comment up to remind people this game still exists and will be HUGE on Wii this fall.
Remember all those moms lining up every Saturday all last Christmas for a Wii? Yeah, they'll be buying this one for their kids. Both history and future outlooks point to this stock floating in the low 200DKP area.
I agree, I also think that looking at the arguments made for why this game should be at around 150DKP-200DKP, this stock should be moving like the LittleBigPlanet stock, as this game is on a system with a larger user-base and the game matches the demographics of the people buying the system better. Also this game is from a proven franchise (Star Wars) and from a proven series (Lego Star Wars), so it would be surprising if it did not sell at least 1.5 million copies. Even better the game is being released in America during the holiday season, which will benefit it greatly as people looking to buy a Wii and a solid game or parents just wanting to get a good game for their kids, will probably pick this one up.
@Gaara42, I just wanted to expand on your post a little bit. I know you made the points before, but it seems like things need to be mentioned over and over again here, so I'm just throwing it back out there. I don't have any real data to back up #5, just a gut feeling. It seems like there's always 1 Star Wars game that everyone has for a system, and this could very well be it, with the broad appeal that it has.
I would agree with all of your points (though I would need to see some sort of data for assertion #5), I was just answering kspraydad's question. You mentioned some points I made earlier (and came to the same sales conclusion as me) in my two previous posts (see comments: 1 and 2.
@Gaara42, Attach rates are all well and good, but there's other factors to consider with this game. 1) Kitsch factor. The people that buy Wii's for kitsch will buy Lego Star Wars to maximize that attribute. 2) Redesign of the Prequel Trilogy levels. As a 26 year old Star Wars nerd, replaying the PT levels after playing the OT levels was kind of a disappointment. If they do a good job making everything uniform (and there's no reason to believe they won't knock this out of the park), it'll sell like gangbusters. 3) Lightsaber controls. As awesome as this is for me (see: SW nerd), it's going to be essentially a demo for what can be done later, in more adult Star Wars games. If they can't pull it together for LEGO, they've got no shot on other games. I think a lot of people will buy it just for that. 4) Target demographic on target system. This is a game marketed to pre-teens on a system that historically has a younger base. 5) Star Wars games don't really die. As was previously mentioned, even at $50 this game will sell a lot, then it will inevitably be knocked down to $30, where it will sell more.
I think even 2 million is severely underestimating the value of this stock. I think that with the combination of Star Wars, Wii lightsaber controls, Christmas, and even half-assed marketing, this game will sell huge. When the future comes out, I'll be a size buyer. :)
The attach rate would be 4.734% (A total of 66.75 million consoles to the game selling 3.16 million (the game was not released in Japan)).
Assuming sales of 25 million Wii consoles by December 2008 that would give 1.184 million copies sold. I think though that the attach rate will be higher for this game due to the fact that the Wii seems even more focus toward the people that buy this game, but after looking at the attach rate, I'll revise my estimate to 130-140DKP as a good estimate for now.
2
It should be 150DKP+ , reasons why in the comments listed below:
Comment 1
Comment 2
Comment 3
Comment 4
Comment 5
Comment 6