If the 360 sells 30 million total within 2 years, CoD4 only needs a 13% attachment ratio in order to sell 3.9 million copies. You had said 4+ million and the stock is not at 4 million, it's at 3.71 million. So the attachment ratio right now would only have to be 12.5%. That means only 1 in 8 360 owners would need to buy the game within the next 2 years. If we take CoD 2's sales and even put them up against 10,000,000 360's sold, CoD 2's attachment ratio is over 20%. To think CoD2 can have an attachment ratio of 20% but CoD4 can't even reach 12.5% is a little off IMO.
Wish there was an edit button. My last point is, do you see the irrational exuberance of this stock? There have been no sell-offs since the IPO. It's straight up from bottom. This stock is due for a drop nonetheless.
I'm shorting this stock and everyone else should be too! But that's just my opinion.
Amidst heavy competition. When has heavy competition ever increased sales?
Let's not forget, the 360 will be lucky to have 14-15 million boxen in the homes of consumers after this Christmas and maybe 25 million by the time CoD4 is long and forgotten. (these are obviously just estimates)
There's just no way i can see CoD4 selling 4 million lifetime. 1 in 6 360 owners over the next 1-2 years will have to pick it up and that's just not going to happen.
I have to disagree. CoD2 on 360 has sold over 2 million and it had multiplayer issues on 360. CoD4 is one of the best looking games on any platform & Infinity Ward has had at least 2 years to make it, being able to fully utilize the 360 this time. They've also moved away from the WWII setting to a more popular modern setting. They're benefiting from a much larger 360 installed base and the game is releasing earlier so that it can take full advantage of the holiday shopping season.
I don't care how good it looks or if Infinity Ward is behind this iteration, the only FPS with legs to do 4 million+ is Halo. CoD4 is an easy short, especially with this inflated stock price on the 360.
i think a lot of people are forgetting what this game is going up against. many fans of the COD series enjoy it purely for online play ... now what will Xbox360 owners be playing online when this comes out? COD or Halo 3?
I think it is wrong to compare the COD2 sell through with COD4 based on sales at the time of the 360 release.
COD4 has 2 things going for it in my opinion which will lend itself to outselling its predecessors.
1. No longer WWII 2. The userbase is increasing.
This game is already generating a reasonable buzz around it and certainly everything I have seen to date would lead me to think this will be a big seller especially on the Xbox and PC markets.
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