@pilias_simber, CoD2 was a launch game & there was a shortage of 360's available. I already talked about CoD3's situatuion. I don't see CoD2 as a truly valid comparison.
@pilias_simber, Not in my opinion. CoD3 was a big disappointment to critics and gamers alike. It was not made by Infinity Ward, that fact alone had people less interested in it and then when the reviews came in even more people were less interested in CoD3. CoD2 received a 90 Metacritic rating, CoD3 received an 82 rating.
To be honest, I am the one that cousing and riding this wave. I thing it was way overrated, and tried to short it time after time, but in the morning after shorting it down 3 points, someone else attacked it further. I didn't have all the money I want to put into in it, so I attacked the stock before its too late. But even if I didn't sell, this thing kept falling. I would say at least 2 others where riding this wave with me.
I think it is overrated, because the Single player campaign is rumored to be really really short, and the multi player competition this year is Halo 3. And whe are talking about November, not december here. VGC has the last one at 478k in 4 weeks. If you calculate Canada out and take a 20% gain from last year, you come up with 516. This year the Title is on the PS3 also, which should take some (not much) sales. So I give it 600k max. And that is my absolute maximum.
I'm just not convinced that people are going to go out and purchase this title over Halo 3 and all the other FPS titles out there in such massive numbers.
While a user base may grow with time, overall sales for particular genres do not proportionally grow, they have limits because not everyone buys more than the major titles in a particular genre unless they are fans of the genre or series.
VGChartz has Call of Duty 2 doing 455k in the first 4 weeks of it's release, and CoD3 at 475k after 4 weeks.
We'll be tracking approximately 4 weeks worth of sales.
You give reason for why it should be in the 0-80DKP range. Higher userbase, from a respected franchise. But also this game is not another WWII game, which will help boost its sales because people have tired of that sub-genre.
The reviews coming in praise it and with Halo 3 out of the way, people will be itching for a new FPS to buy for the holiday's. You also have to consider that this game will be of higher quality and polish than CoD3 since it was made by the original CoD developers Infinity Ward (looking at Metacritic, you see that CoD games made by Infinity Ward score much better than ones made by another developer). Also Call of Duty 2 sold more than Call of Duty 3 on the Xbox360, showing that CoD games made by Infinity Ward for the Xbox360 sell more also.
Due to all these reasons and the fact that this game is being released at the beginning of November, I think it will sell in the 70-80DKP range.
I'm surprised in the drop for this Future. Even the disapointing CoD3 managed 410,800 in DEC 06 with competition like Gears of War and the deflection of PS3 and Wii launching, on a smaller 360 userbase. This year CoD4 & Mass Effect are the Gears of War for 360.
@-THE-RAY-, you do have to take into account the fact that there are many top quality FPS games this holiday season over last year. Many Xbox 360 gamers will be happy with just one FPS this holidy and that FPS will likely be Halo 3. I do hear that CoD4 will be a much better game than CoD3 thought.
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CoD2 was a launch game & there was a shortage of 360's available. I already talked about CoD3's situatuion. I don't see CoD2 as a truly valid comparison.