IMO, the rank should be : Wii > PS2 > X360 > PS3. Reason : Wii version showed up quite often in Jan - Jul period, meaning better legs than other platform. PS2 version showed up ONCE in Feb Top 10, and it has montrous 2007 sales.
I think Wii is underpriced (3.31 M), while X360 is overpriced (3.44M). PS2 are priced slightly low (3.63 M).
Having said that, I think the overall margin is not attractive enough for me. (only 10% - 20% margin)
@lstormy10, I think 360 is overvalued and PS2 is undervalued. Based on my previous recording of sales in months JAN-JUL of this year. I am unable to visit VGC anymore though due to their viruses.
I believe we have a problem with our Guitar Hero III forecasts. Currently, all 4 version of the title (360, PS3, Wii, and PS2) are forecasted together to hit around 12 million in sales.
However, in a recent U.K. interview with RedOctane founders, it was mentioned that Guitar Hero III had "sold more than 8 million copies" (so basically around 8 million copies - otherwise they would have given a more impressive sounding, round number). The article that has the 8 million number is available here. The article also mentions 20 million in DLC sales, which seems to agree with what Activision said at their press conference during E3 (where they stated 18 million songs through DLC) - lending credence to the 8 million number as being direct from Activision/RedOctane. This number is almost definitely worldwide as the U.S. market is the largest market for Guitar Hero games (this can be seen in the fact that even though Guitar Hero III was launched in the U.S., Europe, and Australia during holiday 2007, the overwhelming majority of the 5 million copies it sold during that period came from the U.S. - based on NPD numbers).
Somehow, I cannot imagine Guitar Hero III being able to shift another 4 million copies in its lifetime from the time the article was published in the middle of July - maybe another million or two, but not four. The upcoming Guitar Hero World Tour, the Aerosmith edition of Guitar Hero, and increasing competition from Rock Band and Rock Band 2 all will and have put pressure on the sales of Guitar Hero III.
I believe that the PS2 and Xbox 360 versions are the two versions that are the most overpriced - they are both shown as doing better than the Wii version, which is the only version we have been seeing reappearing in the NPD charts (which cover Guitar Hero's largest market, the U.S.).
The stock is approaching 3 million, which seems a bit bullish for this title. I heard the majority of the interest in GH is in North America. At 3 million, what kind of attach rate are we assuming? Seems a bit high for me.
About VGC data, I'll calculated the "resonable range" it suggest, following those points: Some of VGC sources report also the Sunday, so they have a half sunday more than NPD will have. Calculation out canada, and 5% VGC wants to be above NPD (site owner said yesterday) and an error of 20% this is what I came up with:
@kspraydad, loool. what a funny turn of events!! gamasutra->ixaarii->simexchange->kspraydad ->gamasutra->kspraydad->simexchange. How very cool is that? Very much admiring your do attitude. I wouldn't be at all surprised if you were a simexchange founder :p (I'm new-ish here, just about half a month) Thanks for answering back!
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@Joe80,
IMO, the rank should be :
Wii > PS2 > X360 > PS3.
Reason : Wii version showed up quite often in Jan - Jul period, meaning better legs than other platform.
PS2 version showed up ONCE in Feb Top 10, and it has montrous 2007 sales.
I think Wii is underpriced (3.31 M), while X360 is overpriced (3.44M). PS2 are priced slightly low (3.63 M).
Having said that, I think the overall margin is not attractive enough for me. (only 10% - 20% margin)