This game is RAW!!! It's the racing game to get if you like Sonic games. It has more characters than the one for the gamecube like silver and blaze. They did take out some characters like Ulala and AiAi and replaced them with Billy Hatcher and Amigo but Nights is still in their. The overall score is a 9 out of 10.
I think this stock is overpriced, and I have shorted it.
Reason : - This game is doing very bad in Japan. - This game is not doing well in US (only get 39K sales in NPD Jan 08, despite having almost full 4 weeks to sell, since launch date of Jan 8, 2008). - VGC overtrack US sales of this game significantly (first 4 weeks according to VGC is 100K after adjustmen from America to US, while it is only 39K according to NPD). This means VGC overtrack it by 60%, increasing from 39K to 100K. - There is no proof of good Europe sales yet (this game didn't / hadn't cross the 100K sales barrier in UK)
My estimate for the right price of this stock : 20K Japan (same as VGC) + 100K Americana (adjusted from VGC's 260K Americana figure) + 150K Europe (since Sonic are more famous in Europe compared to US) = 270K or 27 DKP.
Anyone see any problem / mistake with my analysis, especially the target price ? I am forced to refer to VGC, since there is no other source for data (Famitsu/ Media Create doesn't have it, NPD only for Jan data, no data from Europe).
have you take into consideration that : - Sonic Riders:ZG is the second game, after Sonic Riders in 2006
About excite truck, - First month is 40K+, only double my minimum estimate of SR:ZG. Released on 19 Nov 06, which means only one week sales are counted into Nov 06 NPD. - By Dec 06, second month of Excite Truck release (with 80K+ figure you mentioned), Wii userbase is only 1.1 million), while today Wii userbase is 7.4 Million, or 6.5 x larger).
Is it reasonable for me to expect that with 6.5 times userbase, SR:ZG can achieve at least Excite Truck Dec 06 sales ? Even if you think Dec is double other month, and january is weaker than other month, I still think it is reasonable to expect at least 80K sales.
Sonic and the Secret Rings was not a futuristic racing game. This title is a poorman's attempt at capturing the Mario Kart Crowd, much like Mario and Sonic at the Olympics is trying to play off of the Mario Party and Wii Sports titles, they're cheap knockoffs.
Considering this title is getting no hype, no marketing, and its just after the holidays I don't think too many of those Wii owners are running out to the stores to buy this game.
The only example of a real racing game we have on the Wii is excite truck, which had much more going for it being launched during the holidays and it barely did 80k.
Granted the Wii has a larger install base but we're not really see that install base convert into massive software sales, especially for 3rd party titles.
@Dictionary, Sonic titles might do poorly, but will it be so poor that it will be below 80K in January ?
I doubt it will be below 80K for the following reason : - Sonic & Secret Rings achieve 70K+ sales in only 2 weeks (released Feb 20, 2007), while on a low Wii userbase. - Sonic Riders have 4 weeks of sales in NPD Jan 07 (released jan 8, 2008)
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