"So far it seems to me that the simExchange is more about predicting hype than predicting the end result."
If you think about it, for a lot of these games like Spore that aren't coming out for a while, isn't hype all we can work with for predicting how many copies the game will sell? We really can't look at execution of game play other than speculating from the past work of the design team.
I think at this point, buzz and sales predictions go hand in hand until we get closer to the games release when demos become available.
It's pretty interesting to see what happens when publishers hold back info for long periods of time: the stock for such games steadily die. My guess is that people get tired of waiting for their investment to reap rewards and are forced to sell off such stock to invest elsewhere. I'd be much better off selling now then reinvesting again as soon as I catch wind of an announcement. This problem is made worse by the fact that the majority of players must act on the short term to get anywhere. So far it seems to me that the simExchange is more about predicting hype than predicting the end result.
The graphics in his games have never been at the "cutting edge" but I don't think there has ever been such a disparity in the graphics of his games and what has preceeded/will precede them as there is now. It doesn't bother me because I know I'll like it. I just have reservations about dismissing it as a miniscule concern with all the "HD" press that is going round in entertainment right now. Something else I was taking into consideration is that this game is supposed to be released on almost every gaming platform there is, including cell phones. So although its smaller footprint allows it to play on a larger number of computer configurations I don't feel it will be as much of an issue because the audience will have more choices of how to play the game that also don't require them to purchase any new hardware.
WOW's audience and Spore's audience are not the same but they do overlap. Where I see the connection is that a lot of people have grown accustomed to playing games on their PC for hours on end multiple times a week because of WOW. WOW has also taken steps to renew its focus on group combat and strategy. The creating something, customizing it, growing it portions of the game aren't really there anymore for those that have already done it and Spore is the perfect thing, IMO, for them. I don't think it will replace WOW but it will definitely complement it and build upon the PC crowd that WOW has brought (back) to the computer.
I think that can only help sales for a PC game. This ensures more people can actually play the game. Additionally, none of Will Wright's games ever feature cutting edge graphics which I think is part of the formula for success for a PC game.
I agree WoW has brought tons of people to PC gaming, but I don't think there is a connection for them to pick up Spore. Many people who play WoW aren't realy gamers. There are tons of people on WoW who play it for the social element; such as folks who play in a guild w/ their co-workers. I don't think those people are necessarily interested in what Spore offers because I think the core of the game is about planning your race and civilization, rather than talking over Vent as we wait for a raid to form.
I am very excited about Spore because I love simulated management strategy games. However, those games don't tend to sell huge blockbuster numbers. Us Civilization, MOO2 players take a certain level of geekness. However, I'm confident the EA marketing machine will be able to get this game in front of some more casual players to hit something like 4 million copies sold (the stock price at the time of this posting).
I am a big fan of Will Wright and his SimCity franchise. He is a genius on many levels and has unparalled experience as a game designer when it comes to taking the mundane and making it fun and appealing to the critical mass.
I'm a bit leery of expecting this title to catch the same wind as his previous hits because of its Sci-Fi look on the surface, reclusive online capabilities, underwhelming graphics, and plans to release on so many different platforms.
At the same time Will Wright is behind it so I know the gameplay is going to make all of those concerns eventually go out the window. Top that off with all the WOWers that have been brought (back) to the PC gaming trough and I'm seeing big numbers.
I think 4 Million is very reasonable. It is bearish if they get it done soon and bullish if they keep taking their time and wait for all of these MMORPGs/Virtual communities to come out.
I agree there is a lot of interest in the game. That is why the stock is at a huge 399 DKP stock price. What I disagree is the line of reasoning that it is made by the same guy who made the Sims therefore it will have the same number of sales as the Sims. Nothing in life works that way.
None of Sid Meier's games sell anywhere near the Civilization franchise. No single Sid Meier game has sold 4 million copies either. James Cameron, the director of the billion dollar grossing Titanic, has never directed another movie grossing anywhere near a billion dollars. They are good movies, but they don't gross a billion dollars.
There is a lot of buzz for Spore, but that does not equate the game to the Sims. The customer base who buys the Sims don't read reviews. They don't go online checking out game content. They don't even play other games. People who play the Sims, like my sister, are not going to play Spore. They don't even know Will Wright made their favorite game. They only play the Sims for reasons I noted previously.
I'm not saying Spore will not be huge--the stock price at 400 already says its huge. I just don't agree you can say it is the Sims 3.
Spore seems to have even more interest than the Sims did before it came out. Check out any gaming site and watch the number of hits, and the amount of discussion regarding this game if you don't believe me.
Also take a look at just how many votes this thing is getting for the submissions here, this is a very popular game and it will be awesome.
The reason people are comparing it to The Sims is because the creator of The Sims, and the Simcity franchise is the creator of Spore, this is his next great project. The guy is a genius, like Sid Meier when it comes to making video games that are fun to play, and like Sid Meier, just about all of the games he has released have done well, extremely well in the case of Sim City, Sim City 2000, and of course both of The Sims, which is one of the most popular PC games of all time.
Spore appeals to a wide audience the same way Will's last games appealed to a wide audience, the idea of creating your own lifeform/civilization and taking it out to the galaxy is a very cool idea, as is the idea of taking other people's creations and putting them into your game.
I think Spore will be a winner--but that doesn't mean its undervalued. The current 3.99 million copies sold prediction is already forecasting a huge winner.
I don't understand why people are comparing this to the Sims. The Sims was a huge fluke in the world of game sales.
This game is nothing like the Sims. Just because its made by the same guy doesn't mean its going to be the same game. The Sims appealed to casual players, particularly girls, who liked shopping--buying fictional stuff for their giant fictional house and having fictional relationships. Spore is nothing like the Sims. To compare their sales is a great flaw in logic.
Why would you think Spore will do anywhere near the success of Sims 2 or an Sims expansion pack?
This stock is still undervalued. All the reviews and hype for this game reflect a serious interest in the game. Combine that with with the knowledge of past performance for the game creator, Will Wright, who also developed Sim City, The Sims, (the entire Sim franchise since 1989), and the inherent interest the general public has with this type of game and you have a guaranteed winner.
The current stock price suggests that Spore will only sell a quarter of The Sims and 1.4 million less than Sims 2. I seriously doubt that this won't do at least as good as Sims 2, seeing as how that game was released after the first one was milked by seven expansion packs that broke into the millions. One expansion pack alone sold as much as Spore's current stock price.
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If you think about it, for a lot of these games like Spore that aren't coming out for a while, isn't hype all we can work with for predicting how many copies the game will sell? We really can't look at execution of game play other than speculating from the past work of the design team.
I think at this point, buzz and sales predictions go hand in hand until we get closer to the games release when demos become available.