Yeah, I'd say it's safe to assume that online sales don't count for a large portion of the current total sales, probably less than 10%. Still, those are sales that nobody in this thread seems to be accounting for. There's also no reason why they won't keep Burnout on PSN forever, so in time PSN sales may be more significant, it's hard to gauge with so few hard numbers for PSN out there.
@zukaus, I didn't know this. Is there any evidence/estimated figure / analysis that PSN sales are very big (compared to retail) ? With no evidence, isn't it safe to assume that online sales is only 10% or less of retail sales, especially since online sales is only available 6 months+ after game release on January ?
Normal retail shareholders have no such access to these sales numbers. Even the largest shareholders are not automatically given access to confidential information like this. They may request those sales numbers but the companies are not obligated to give out those specific sales numbers. The biggest shareholders in most large public companies are almost always some large investment firm and most of these guys probably subscribe to NPD's numbers anyhow.
That information is available, you just have to be in a position to gain access to it, normally that means spending a large sum of money on buying NPD/ Chart-Track data or being an investor.
I presume if you brought even the tiniest amount of shares in each publisher you would be able to see the complete sales numbers for almost every game.
That makes sense. As a result, this is why we have a prediction market to figure out what the global LTD sales may be. However, it is a pity there is no accurate source of global sales to judge the stock against like there is with movie box office numbers.
@Powertrade, Well, VGC's Americas # is 530K (X360) + 360K (PS3) = 990K. Converting Americas to US = 990K x 90% = 900K (rounded up). From the graph, it seems that it is around 600K - 640K. This means, VGC over-tracked it by (900K-640K)/900K = 29%.
This stock is overpriced, IMO. Since this game is almost 1 year old, the GLS should be close to LTD. The only question is whether VGC also overtrack this game in Europe. If not over-tracked in Europe, the LTD should be 560K for PS3 version, and GLS should be 1.2 x 560K = 670K.
This is directly contrary to the data present on VGChartz, which I assume is what has been driving the stock. VGC is estimating about 800k copies sold for each version.
My assumption is the Gamasutra chart is using NPD data, which is US only. The VGC data is supposed to include NA, Europe, and Japan. The stock we are trading is global sales.
1
Yeah, I'd say it's safe to assume that online sales don't count for a large portion of the current total sales, probably less than 10%. Still, those are sales that nobody in this thread seems to be accounting for. There's also no reason why they won't keep Burnout on PSN forever, so in time PSN sales may be more significant, it's hard to gauge with so few hard numbers for PSN out there.