I forgot to mention that the 477K is an absolute max (IMO), since 4K / week is during holiday season, and it is not reasonable to expect 4K / week during Jan - July 08 period. Unless there is a "PS3 the best" release for this game (which I think is highly probable) down the road, the 600K GLS is safe. One of the reason I hate investing in GLS is because of this (PS3 the best / platinum / best hit), which can increase GLS significantly (like Super Mario Sunshine in US).
Current GLS is 1.25. If we take 600K as the GLS of this game in Japan (GLS means years of years of sales, which seems reasonable to expect 600K from 477K 1st year, since HSG is a series that is known to have legs), and if you think US + Europe is less than Japan (say 400-500K GLS), then total is 1 Million - 1.1 Million. It is overpriced, but not substantially (only 15%). The combination of potential profit of only 15% and the fact that I don't like GLS stock (especially when shorting), make me stay away from this GLS stock. Feel free to short this stock if you wanted to. :D. I will focus on the future (March 08).
Famitsu Top 100 2007 have the sales # of this game at 372,895 by Dec 30, 2007, which mean there are 50K unit sold between between Sep 23 (at the figure 322,140) and Dec 30, a 14 week period.
It mean the average of the weekly sales is : 50K / 14 = 4K / week (rounded up). By July 2008, one year after release, this game should have additional 4K/week x 26 week = 104K (max), resulting in 373+104 = 477 K LTD at that time.
I still feel that this future is overpriced, when compared to sales # in Japan, where PS3 is #2. Can we really expect good # from US, where PS3 is currently #3 (after Wii and X360) LTD ?
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Yep. It could be even worse than 69K.