@Arbiter, @deftangel, I think 50% assumption for X360 version is dangerous. Why ? This article told us that X360 and PS3 version # are very close (less than 30K difference), even though X360 userbase in US are way above PS3 userbase in US. With Europe, we don't have any data, but I think there is a big possibility that PS3 version are doing better compared to X360 version in Europe, since X360 userbase in Europe are only slightly larger than PS3 userbase.
The wildcard here is the PC #. IF we assume that PC got 10% or more of total sales, then I believe that a 40% X360, 50% PS3 (and 10% PC) is more reasonable. This is why I am short on this game. I think 1.2 Million or below is the right price of this stock.
Prince of Persia was released on 3 platforms (Xbox 360, PS3, and PC). If we assume 1/2 of the sales were on 360, that would get us to 1.1 million so far, which is somewhat close to the current GLS forecast. I guess it depends on what market share you think the Xbox 360 captured for this title.
Along with its financial results and confirmation of a new outing for Assassin’s Creed, Ubisoft has also confirmed that its next-gen sandbox shooter Far Cry has now sold 2.9m copies worldwide.
In addition, Shaun White Snowboarding has sold 2.3m copies and can claim the crown of being the second best-selling sports titles in North America in 2008.
The latest iteration of the firm’s Prince of Persia franchise has also sold well, notching 2.2m sales
@GoblinMerchant, This game didn't make NPD Dec 08 Top 20, so the sales is quite low. It is definitely below 487K, since that is Wii Music's figure, and Wii Music is at #11. This game COULD be around 400K (optimistic view) or around 200K (pessimistic view).
If we take 400K, I think the GLS will be around 1.6 Million (WW). This view means simEx current price is roughly correct. If we take 300K (average), the GLS should be 1.2 Million (WW), IMO. That means there are 30% profit margin to be had in this stock, even though the price reached 160 DKP.
The game didn't make the top 10, but the game did just come out and could've sold as many as 495k w/o making the list, which is more than 1/4 of the current GLS.
What is the release date for Europe and Australia?
The stock may not require that much more punishment for not making the NPD Top 10, but only subscribers know exactly where December sales were.
"Yes, it's true that at no time while playing Prince of Persia did I feel any of the frustration that I felt on a regular basis in Mirror's Edge. But neither did I ever feel the joy of doing something right, of stringing together a perfect series of vaults and wall-runs and feeling like it was based on my own skill."
I've played the Sands of Time and Warrior Within, and even tough I was a bit worried about the visual in the beginning, now I'm really looking forward to play this game.
1
@deftangel,
I think 50% assumption for X360 version is dangerous. Why ?
This article told us that X360 and PS3 version # are very close (less than 30K difference), even though X360 userbase in US are way above PS3 userbase in US. With Europe, we don't have any data, but I think there is a big possibility that PS3 version are doing better compared to X360 version in Europe, since X360 userbase in Europe are only slightly larger than PS3 userbase.
The wildcard here is the PC #. IF we assume that PC got 10% or more of total sales, then I believe that a 40% X360, 50% PS3 (and 10% PC) is more reasonable.
This is why I am short on this game. I think 1.2 Million or below is the right price of this stock.