@MasterTrader, I think a 5 million unit forecast is a bit bullish. The game hasn't broke 4 million units sold yet and its almost 11 months old. Many people picking up a Wii at this point will likely end up getting this game used.
@jsmrekar, do you mean why this stock isn't more active in terms of trading? I would assume because it is almost 10 months old. I think the stock is ready for delisting as well.
I do agree that its a great game though. That is why we have a 5 million + sales forecast.
It is interesting to me that this game isn't more active. I do understand that part of it is the nature of the beast. There will be many people who purchase wii's who never play a single player game. I personally own this game and when I have time, 1-2 hrs, i will play a temple. The textures are quite good and so are the lighting, play control, story, cutscenes, items, mini-quests. All-in-all it is a great standard to measure other Wii games against. It is also playable long after you beat it with all of the mini-quests for fishing, golden bugs, poe souls, etc..
I recently was listening to a Metroid Prime 3 video review and they used ZTP as a measurement standard.
Anyone else out there own it? care to share an opinion about the game?
Overall, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess takes gamers to newly structured world that will seem familiar to memories past. This game sucks the gamer into a fantastic, wonderful, beautifully designed, character and adventure driven world; this epic adventure game does not let up even after the last credit rolls.
OVERALL 9.8
People i think let this stock drop off their radar because of the relatively poor JP showing for a Zelda game, but lookign back at the long picture on this its clear that it is very very undervalued by at least 10-30%. Based on factoring in the excellent sales of this game in otehr regions, vgsharts is currently estimating 3.3M sales already of this game worldwide:
This game has been selling at least 20k in the American vg chartz (plus or minus a k or two in either direction) for at least the past two months, so it is a long tail game. The reason for this is simple and obvious, as a flag ship game, this is that game that a significant number of people are pickign up once they finally get their hands on a Wii due to the supply shortages. In Europe (where there also are supply shortages) its probably showing the same behaviour, and since the sales of other are 60% of the NA sales overall thats probably at least another 10-15k per week. at a sales rate of 30-35k, it will easily pass the current estimate (4M) in a few months, and if you look at the nintendo released numbers (which were 3.3M overall at end of march), the vgcharts numbers are underrepoting by about 10-15% (whcih is whithin their standard margin of error), and maybe its past 4M already. Factor in a big spike in sales this holiday season and a probable "greatest hits"-like edition of the game comes out at a lower price point, and i cannot see how this stock could possibly sell less than 5M lifetime, and potentially a lot more if it tails well even past holiday '07.
I think Bungalow Bob is right. People underestimate long-term sales on some games, and this is one of them.
This game will be on shelves this Xmas, still with a pretty prominent spot. It will still be on shelves when the next Wii Zelda debuts (in 2009, I'm guessing), but with a $30 price tag. It may even have one lonely spot on shelves, possibly dropped to bargain price, at the end of Wii's cycle.
Basically, it will maintain somewhat slow but very steady sales for years, especially in America. It should reach 4 million WW this year, but still have well over 1 million sales left in the tank.
I just noticed this: Legend of Zelda (Wii) was the 9th best selling console game in April in the U.S. - it actually moved 6 spots up the list from the previous month!(NPD). http://ve3d.ign.com/articles/790/790122p1.html
VGchartz has it at 2.1M in America + Japan, and selling about 25K/week. Including the rest of the world would bring the number up to a little over 3M, and a little over 40K/week.
This game should pass 4M by the end of the year (it will recieve a big holiday boost in America and Europe).
Wind Waker sold 4.35M, Ocarina sold 7.60 (VGchartz) - both on consoles that sold a small fraction of what Wii will sell. Twilight Princess (GC) sales in the U.S. have slowed down from 45K in March, to 21K in April (over the same period that the Wii version moved 6 spots up the chart); so I think that the 1.32M that Nintendo shipped worldwide by March will be all they´ll ever ship of the GC version. http://ve3d.ign.com/articles/790/790122p1.html http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2007/070427e.pdf
Based on all this, I think Twilight Princess (Wii) will sell about 5.5M. It´s the kind of game that will still be selling in steady, small amounts every month even 3 years from now.
According to the year end fiscal press release from Nintendo (referred to elsewhere on this site) this title has sold 3.27 million copies WW as of Mar 31 2007
Current official number is 3 million. Sadly, trends on other Zelda games implies that the game won't get much higher, especially considering that combined with the GC version this game has already approached the standard for all console Zelda games (except Majora's Mask); on the low end, but still within that given range.
I personally would not short, but I don't see a heavy space for increase right now. Next holiday season could prove me wrong though, but that's a ways away.
but it does show that it is so popular that it pulls 35 used from a game-broker. they are supposed to rip you off and turn a profit non their purchase...not too shabby
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