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Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360)
GTA delay shakes Industry
GTA delay shakes Industry
MSNBC.com - August 6, 2007
Submitted by justcrim (595) at 12:45PM PST on August 6, 2007
The gaming Industry is concerned at this point. It was counting on GTA 4 as being a heavy hitter in sales revenue this holiday season. GTA 4, Madden and Halo 3 combined were expected to be over 1/3 of this holiday's game sales, and be responsible for many consoles being sold for both Xbox 360 and the struggling PS3.
Microsoft will be hurt because this was to be their 1-2 punch for the season because of their exclusive content, and Sony was expecting this to help them sell more units during the holiday season.
The news also hurt Take Two's stock sending it down 12.5 percent.
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1Laoldar posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 7:48PM PST on August 8, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@justcrim,
GTA San Andreas sold less on the XB than the double pack of 3/Vice City did. While San Andreas had an attachment rate of about 12.5% on the PS2, it was only about 7.8% on the Xbox. That's a pretty big drop in %.
GTA will not sell 15 million copies between both consoles. If fact, I have doubts about it grabbing more than 1-2 million on each. When you compare it to games like I listed earlier, that's not a huge deal. 4th quarter numbers will be HIGHER than last year because we're seeing a stronger software lineup across the board as well as 2 price drops (and increased Wii supply). The loss of one title will not be a big deal and won't show up in the numbers. The only big losers are Take-Two/Rockstar and Sony (arguably MS had been hoping for big things here, but they have a lot of huge titles coming up anyways, mostly towards the same GTA demographic).[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
3justcrim posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 2:34PM PST on August 8, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@Laoldar,
The GTA series didn't sell well on the Xbox? Are you crazy? For a game that was released a year or more earlier on a system that had a larger install base, GTA has surprisingly sold very well on the Xbox. I am not saying it compared to the PS2, but you really cant compare the 2 when it had a 1 year or more lead and a larger amount of consoles in the market. So, until they get simultaneously launched, you cant compare sales of the title.
But you seemed to have totally disregarded my other posting about how you think so small when you talk about the industry.
We all agree that GTA not being out for the holidays is no huge deal. But this article (and I agree) wants to tell you it IS a big deal and will effect the total revenue for the 4th quarter sales of the industry.
Members of the industry include, but are not limited to the Retailers (like Best Buy and Amazon), the Console Manufactures (Sony and MS in this case), the Publishers (like Take Two), the Developers (in this case Rockstar), and ALL of the distribution lines between every one.
Now, how does this REALLY effect those people? Because the next year's budgets are based on previous years budgets. So, if this game misses the end of the Q4 sales, it will greatly effects all of those companies in revenue and will force them to cut back in places they normally wouldn't have.
Now here is the part I think you are having trouble with. Yes, any customer like me with a limited budget and lack of games to want to invest in will take my $60 and put it toward another game(s). This will of course end up not hurting retail or the console manufactures because I already own the consoles I want and I will be spending money in the stores.
But, the reason this game will impact the sales in retail stores and number of units of PS3s and Xbox 360s sold is because there are people waiting just for this game. And those people will buy the console when this game comes out. There are people who buy everything on their child's Christmas list (and if GTA is missing on that list, it wont be replaced by another game). And that is why this will impact the industry in a big way.
But, don't take me wrong here, and don't think anyone is going to have a heart attack over this point. Many highly anticipated games miss the holiday launch frame. The world goes on, and those effected just work around it. But you don't see the papers, and you really don't know how many people do count on games like GTA to come out and help them finish the year with a strong revenue.[ Elite ] [ Level 17 ] [ Rank: 595 ]bids
1Laoldar posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 11:00AM PST on August 8, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@welshbloke,
Your link didn't back up your claim that the 360 has a better rate than the Wii. Your link explicitly said it wasn't comparing the 360 to the Wii, but only to the PS3. It didn't mention the Wii because then it couldn't claim the 360 had the best rates.
Weekly sales show that Wii owners are buying nearly as many games per week as 360 owners, and with a much smaller game library and install base.
If Madden missed the holiday season, it would be a huge deal. GTA has never sold well on the XBox and the PS install base is too small for it to matter now. Sony knows it will move consoles, but not that many...if it thought it would move the 2 million units collecting dust on store shelves, it would have waited to have a price cut AFTER GTA came out. If they're willing to take a $100 hit on every console sold for that game, they must believe that it won't move that many systems.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
2welshbloke posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 11:47PM PST on August 7, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@Laoldar,
Honestly this really is my last response (Forum anybody?)
Attach rates:
The link backs up the attach rates. Your weekly sales are not attach rates they are simply one weeks worth of sales. The industry standard for attach rates is how games on average a gamer will have per console. Obviously weekly figures go up and down based on releases. Oh and the person who bid the link down because I could not correct the original well... whatever.
PS2 History:
Any game that has sold 40 millions copies in its franchise on one platform (PS2) of course would be important. A lot of people have sat on the fence and not purchased a PS3 because of the cost but GTA could be the game to get them to make that purchase hence why missing the peak holiday season when they folks spend the most would be important to the industry not just Sony.
Wii:
Obviously the Wii does not have this game coming to it. The point I make here is that the industry that is everybody will feel the impact when a major brand game misses and important date. The Wii will continue to sell as it has done and that is unimportant as that has not changed any projections for the Store owners. The GTA game missing the holiday period has and that is important. Hardware sales will now be down as well as software this will be important NOW yes this may be nothing but a blip in the life of these console but the point of the original story is how it will affect them now.
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1Laoldar posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 5:32PM PST on August 7, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@welshbloke,
The numbers I used were the totals for software and hardware sold in a week. So how many games are purchased against how many systems are out there.
GTA selling a lot in the past is almost meaningless now. GTA4 is going to consoles that only have a fraction of the systems that the PS2 had out and will not come anywhere close to those sales numbers. People are more likely to shell out $200 for a new console to play a game...not so much for a $600 one.
I've said before...I AGREE that Sony and MS will be annoyed by this (Sony much more so)...but it is IRRELEVENT to the industry as a whole. That was my point. The article paints this delay as a major shockwave to the whole industry and that's simply not true.
Oh and your links do nothing to counter the point about Wii sales. One is from before there was next-gen competition and the second one explicitly ignores the Wii and only compares it to PS3 sales.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
-2welshbloke posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 1:49PM PST on August 7, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@welshbloke,
Linked to an old article
http://www.xbox360fanboy.com/2007/07/25/parsing-360s-npd-and-post-e3-data/[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 60 ]bids
1welshbloke posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 1:43PM PST on August 7, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@Laoldar,
I am talking attach rates that is the number of games per console not individual volumnes of specific games.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=18962
I have no idea what those numbers you quote are supposed to mean in relation to attach rates. It is obvious that each platform has sold more than those numbers to date alone against a single title.
GTA sold a lot and if you look at the PS2 figures of the top 5 all time selling games on the PS2 platform 3 of them are GTA version and two are Gran Tourismo. That is over 40 millions copies sold.
I think it is an important game and I think it missing this key holiday period important. I do not know why that is so hard to grasp. I am not saying it is going sell millions in the holiday period but what I am saying is this game is important to Sony because not only will it sell games it will also get some fence sitters off to the shops. So to recap unlike Harry Potter or whatever analogies you throw at it, this game is more than just software it is hardware and that my friend is why this delay coming when it does is important.
Now I will have to refrain from responding again because this is unfair to the other members as to my mind it has become a bit of a rant and is no longer helpfull.
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6Laoldar posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 10:44AM PST on August 7, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@welshbloke,
What makes you claim the 360 has a "far higher attach rate"?
Using the last available vgcharts numbers as a guide (if NPD releases total console software sales, I'd appreciate it if someone could post them):
Removing the Wii Sports pack-in sales (may be unfair due to 360 bundles), the Wii sold over 306,000 games for an American install base of just under 4 million.
The 360 sold 485,000 games for 6.6 million consoles.
Those rates of games sold per console are almost identical.
Also, the 360 numbers are high there due to the release of two new EA sports games that accounted for 170,000 in sales while the Wii had no new big releases.
If you go back a couple weeks to when neither console had any huge releases, Wii software nearly outsells 360 software, but with only 60% as many systems. It sure looks like the Wii has an equal (or even higher considering the games library is much smaller) attach rate than the 360.
Yes, the industry wants all consoles to do well. However, this won't affect many companies. GTA sold about 14-15 million units on a console with 120 million systems (and under a million on the XB). How many would it have sold on a system with only 4 million systems? Even if you combine the 360 and PS3, you only have 10% of the install base of the previous games. GTA4 will NOT perform as well as the previous titles and it's a mistake for industry folk to assume it will matter as much in terms of sales as the last generation.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
1koshbaby posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 7:42AM PST on August 7, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@welshbloke,
From my experience, this delay is a great thing because it will limit the number of AAA titles released during the holiday season.
In real life (when I'm not trading virtual video game stocks! ;-)), I operate a bookstore and we deal with the same issues around Christmas time. In our market, French Canada, Harry Potter 7 is set to be released October 26th. This date is far earlier than the date they had originally planned (December 3rd) because they know that it will negatively affect the sales of all other books including those they publish themselves. By pushing the date as early as possible, it makes it less likely to be a Christmas gift as many will not be able to wait until Christmas day to read the book and will buy it right away.
In GTA's case, by pushing into the new year they will be able to capitalize on the drought of titles that will occur in that quarter.[ Speaker ] [ Level 19 ] [ Rank: 432 ]bids
1welshbloke posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 2:16AM PST on August 7, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@Laoldar,
I have to agree with Justcrim. This is important to the industry. The console numbers although important do not necessarily generate into software sales. The 360 has a far higher attach rate than the Wii for example so although it is selling well it does not outsell overall even if the console numbers were matched.
GTA is a system seller full stop. The impact will be felt hardest by Sony because they are more reliant on good titles at the moment. I am not dismissing what the Wii is doing at the moment but the industry is looking equally towards the PS3 and 360 to perform well.
Obviously the sales will spread to some degree although I strongly expect one or two titles to benefit more than others. For example Bioshock is starting to generate a good buzz (And it is from Take 2 as well) and if timed well could make the most of this delay for the 360. Maybe it is not a massive system seller in the same way the GTA franchise is but I suspect it will be one of the winners.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 60 ]bids
4Laoldar posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 1:00AM PST on August 7, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@justcrim,
No, it won't be a "large scale" impact. It'll impact the two slower selling consoles and delay the GTA sales (not eliminate).[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
6justcrim posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 11:39PM PST on August 6, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@Laoldar,
The Industry includes more then just Microsoft and Sony. You say that GTA will not effect holiday sales, and I say you are wrong. Kids will ask for Halo, GTA, Heavenly Sword, ect. And they wont get one of those games.
Also, as stated in the original article, both companies were hoping this would help sell more consoles for the holiday season.
This is also going to be a lot less in total gaming software revenue. This will make an impact on the gaming industry on a large scale. It is not the end of the world, but to merely dismiss it because you are not excited for the game is kind of naive.[ Elite ] [ Level 17 ] [ Rank: 595 ]bids
3Laoldar posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 4:19PM PST on August 6, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@Making_Waves,
Not every game. This was only to out on two systems out of several (Wii, DS, PSP, PC, PS2 will not for instance). The GTA series was very successful on the PS2, but it's foolish for analysts to assume it will be as well on the PS3/360. Without the mass-market install base, it won't perform.
The real losers on this deal are games coming out on the 360/PS3 in the last two months of 07...games that would have potentially benefitted from the jump in console sales for the 2nd/3rd place consoles of the new gen. The PS3 in particular will be hurting because the gaming media, which still has a hard time dealing with games that aren't about killing things, will be drooling over Halo 3 exclusively now. If nothing else, GTA has major brand new recognition that is missing from a lot of other big PS3/360 titles for the end of 07 and that might bite into their predicted holiday system sales.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
2Laoldar posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 4:10PM PST on August 6, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@welshbloke,
The fanboys that want the new GTA game will still buy it. The consumers that need to buy a gift for X-Mas will buy another game. Life will go on (well, maybe not for Take-Two). The game isn't cancelled and it won't change the sales numbers...it'll just move them. Though we could see this being used as an excuse when the numbers are lower than expected due to the small install bases of the 360 and PS3.
It won't be a big deal...though it might make things a bit more interesting for the first half of 2008 as opposed to having everything dumped in the last quarter of 2007 (I'm drooling over Mario Kart personally).[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
4Making_Waves posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 2:27PM PST on August 6, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@welshbloke,
Every other game coming out this holiday season will benefit.
Honestly, if GTA 4 was going to be the holiday sales behemoth GOD that it this article suggests it was going to be, I think that the media would have been all over it, and ripping up the video game industry yet again saying it's "corrupting or society" or something to that degree.[ Elite ] [ Level 14 ] [ Rank: 706 ]bids
3welshbloke posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 1:51PM PST on August 6, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes Industry@Laoldar,
I agree but the beancounters expected the money and now their is hell to pay.
I think the most interesting thing about the GTA issue is who will benefit. I suspect retail believes nobody will benefit, but to my mind somebody always comes out on top.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 60 ]bids
8Laoldar posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 1:13PM PST on August 6, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes IndustryThey should change the title of the article from "shakes industry" to "shakes 2 of the consoles". I understand that the focus is on the effects of the GTA delay, but it completely neglects mentioning the Wii and DS...two of the top sellers for hardware and software (nevermind the undying juggernaut of the PS2).
With huge titles coming like Brain Age 2, Guitar Hero 3, Mario Galaxy, Smash Bros Brawl, Halo 3, Madden, Bioshock, Metroid, Lair, Heavenly Sword, Phantom Hourglass, Lego Star Wars, Assassin's Creed, Rock Band (nevermind possibilities like Wii Fit)...the industry will do just fine.
Analysts should stop focusing on a single demographic (young males) and start considering the entire industry. It's a great year to be a gamer, no matter what system you own or what you like to play.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
3justcrim posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 12:45PM PST on August 6, 2007. RE: GTA delay shakes IndustryThe gaming Industry is concerned at this point. It was counting on GTA 4 as being a heavy hitter in sales revenue this holiday season. GTA 4, Madden and Halo 3 combined were expected to be over 1/3 of this holiday's game sales, and be responsible for many consoles being sold for both Xbox 360 and the struggling PS3. Microsoft will be hurt because this was to be their 1-2 punch for the season because of their exclusive content, and Sony was expecting this to help them sell more units during the holiday season. The news also hurt Take Two's stock sending it down 12.5 percent.[ Elite ] [ Level 17 ] [ Rank: 595 ]
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For some reason you like to down play GTA's success. Selling millions of copies isn't something every game can do. This is a significant release, whether you believe it or not.
And please stop down bidding me just because you disagree. My arguments are valid, and clearly explained.
And of course this year's 4th quarter numbers will be better then last. But that isn't the point. The point is that it could be higher because of GTA, but because it isn't being released, the industry is adjusting.
But, this is the end of me trying to explain this. I don't like arguing with people who down bid someone just because they disagree.