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Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360)
Janco: GTA IV Could Reach 6-9 Million In First Week Sales
Janco: GTA IV Could Reach 6-9 Million In First Week Sales
Gamasutra - October 9, 2007
Submitted by Zapron (867) at 4:19PM PST on October 9, 2007
Janco Partners' Mike Hickey relates the success of Halo 3 to the future potential of GTA IV on XBox360.
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3Gaara42 posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 7:24PM PST on October 9, 2007. RE: Janco: GTA IV Could Reach 6-9 Million In First Week Sales@Laoldar,
The numbers he predicted seemed a bit far-fetched to me. I am not sure what San Andreas's launch numbers were, but I have the feeling games in the GTA series sell a lot of copies over a period of time, not just on launch day like Halo does. I expect GTA to reach Halo levels, but to do so over a longer period of time than Halo has done. But GTA might now have a fanbase as rabid as the Halo fanbase and they might pick GTA IV up in massive numbers at launch. I think that will become more clear as the launch of GTA IV nears.[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 8 ]bids
5Laoldar posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 4:51PM PST on October 9, 2007. RE: Janco: GTA IV Could Reach 6-9 Million In First Week Sales@Gaara42,
It's well beyond "possible". Those numbers would be about 3-4 times the numbers of Halo 3's first week (I think an estimate of 2 million or less is expected).
For comparison, this analyst thinks that 4.4 million (!) copies of Halo 3 were sold in its first week. His guesstimate for GTA4 is using the attach rates of Halo 3 (and going down from there).
It's completely insane to think that GTA4 will sell in numbers that high...on the PS2, with an install base of over 120 million, San Andreas only sold 12 million. Yet it's going to sell half that in one week with only 12-14 million consoles? This guy is just playing with attachment rates of Halo 3 (using fictional sales numbers) without considering the past of the GTA series. It would be like estimating Resident Evil sales based off of Mario games.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
1Gaara42 posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 4:24PM PST on October 9, 2007. RE: Janco: GTA IV Could Reach 6-9 Million In First Week Salesbids
9Zapron posted on Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) at 4:19PM PST on October 9, 2007. Article: Janco: GTA IV Could Reach 6-9 Million In First Week Sales
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I agree. GTA can have good release weeks but its number comes also from the legs the games usually have. I think this analyst took the last lifetime sales and compared it to Halo 2 lifetime sales and predict such a growth. Halo 3 had more hype than Halo 2, I don't think GTA 4 will have the same favor. And Halo 3 has a big "Hardcore" audience, while I think GTA has a casual appeal, those are different buy schemes. Taking the install base and the price of the consoles into account, this number is just nuts.