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Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3)
Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one
Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one
Gamesindustry - November 29, 2007
Submitted by welshbloke (60) at 10:34AM PST on November 29, 2007
Due to production costs, Metal Gear Solid 4 needs to sell over a million copies on its first day, according to one of the game's assistant producers.
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3Arbiter posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 10:09AM PST on December 1, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@ixaarii, the living room awareness strategy doesn't work for Sony as the company is already associated with the living room. The point of the strategy for MSFT was to get out of the PC and into new areas. People didn't associate with MSFT outside of the computer.
Sony has been making TVs, home theaters, and other equipment for decades. If Blu-Ray fails for them, that is a huge step back, but not as big as if PS3 fails for them. PS2 carried this company through the hard times. At least now Stringer has turned around other parts of the company so they aren't reliant on the gaming division. The Sony Bravia line is one of the most popular TV products once again.[ Guru ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 159 ]bids
2Arbiter posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 10:05AM PST on December 1, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@ixaarii, in terms of getting financial info, check out finance.google.com our finance.yahoo.com.
Sony exiting Cell research doesn't mean they will not be using the product any longer and does not preclude future PlayStation products using the Cell processor. It just simply means they will not be an equity holder of the project. Neither Microsoft or Nintendo are funders of PowerPC research. Sony would just have to buy future Cell technology from IBM and Toshiba, rather than making any revenue by selling the chips. This is probably a good decision as few other customers have lined up to buy Cell processors.[ Guru ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 159 ]bids
3Arbiter posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 10:00AM PST on December 1, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@ixaarii, I must disagree with you on the SingStar vs Guitar Hero analysis. Much more people of the gaming demographic would likely want to be a rock star than a pop star. I'm not sure which country you are from, but electronic music is not popular at all in the US (I assume you are from Europe).
In the US, the most popular music right now is hip hop/rap (Kanye West, 50 Cent, Timbaland, Beyonce, etc.) If there was a Rap Hero game, it would probably do very well. Rock isn't as popular as it was before, but much of the gaming demographic isn't all that trendy and still listen to rock. Many more gamers would pretend to be Metallica than pretend to be Clay Aiken.[ Guru ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 159 ]bids
1Arbiter posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 9:55AM PST on December 1, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day onebids
2Arbiter posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 9:53AM PST on December 1, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@ixaarii, in terms of MGS sales needing a strong first day, this is the case with most products in the public spotlight. Were iPhone sales really critical to the first day in terms of total cash flow for the lifetime of the product? No...but the entire world was watching how well it sold on day one. People want to know if other people thought the product is worth buying.
This is why the first weekend is key for a movie. If you have a bad first weekend in the box office, no one else is going to go see your movie either the second weekend. There just isn't any buzz for your movie.
Most of these products you can forecast lifetime sales based on the very early sales and scale them out (which is why we don't need to trade lifetime stocks until every copy is off the shelves).[ Guru ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 159 ]bids
1Laoldar posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 12:39PM PST on November 30, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day oneOh and just for the sake of comparison (sorry for not including this in the previous post), Nintendo's 2006 numbers show revenue of $7.8 billion with net income of $1.4 billion...so they actually make more profit than Sony, a larger corporation with 10 times the revenue.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
2Laoldar posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 12:37PM PST on November 30, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@ixaarii,
You're welcome. You can just google for them, or check Wikipedia (which links to the financial reports of the companies for its info).
I've always said that Sony has to be careful about the profits/revenue of its gaming division as it's simply another section of a large corporation. Unlike Microsoft (which has money to burn in the interest of gaining a new foothold) or Nintendo (which has always maintained a healthy profit margin on their systems), Sony doesn't have a lot of wiggle room to work with.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
2ixaarii posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 10:24AM PST on November 30, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@Laoldar,
the reason I would assume that is because I think more people are into non-rock music, simply because there's multiple genres there. Both because of pop & electronic music and because I had assumed that the number of people who have wanted to learn say guitar would be outnumbered by those who sing along to stuff. That is why I would think a property like Singstar could be much more hot if used properly than a rock-instrument oriented one. Though i still hold to that line of reasoning I do totally see your point of view where an instrument-object might cut off inhibitions and thus do more.
As far as the MSvsSony revenues & profitability: WOW! that was very insightful! thank you so very much! Where did you get those numbers, if I may ask? With those numbers in mind one of the biggest things I had put on their side: the fact that they're a company focused on profitability may turn against them and it suddenly seems possible to me that they might turn into more profitable pastures if MS over-cashes them. This does seem to fit in with the fact that they'd rather develop than pay for exclusives and the to me rather shocking news that they abandoned Cell research and opted to go for some kind of lens reasearch if I understood right. I had always figured a Cell 2 would be a logical next step for them, as it seemed to me from tech articles that technologically it's exactly the kind of architecture that benefits from more cores (I think I was reading they cut back on the number of p/sPUs, but that the technology is very fit for evolution... but I'm really not sure about that info). So should this press on it could indeed go either way with them choosing to go maybe into more profitable fields like cameras and displays... still, that would be a surprising move considering their present media empire.
Thanks for the great facts and great discussions![ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 444 ]bids
1Laoldar posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 9:49AM PST on November 30, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@ixaarii,
I'd disagree...I think people are more likely to get into a rhythm game (like Guitar Hero) than a singing one as many people simply cannot sing.
Oh and as to why Microsoft has more money:
In the fiscal year 2007 Microsoft had revenue of $51 billion, with net income of over $14 billion.
In fiscal 2007, Sony had revenue of revenue of $70 billion, with profits of $1 billion.
So while Sony has a higher level of revenue and is a more diversified company, Microsoft is a MUCH more profitable company due to having lower costs across the board.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
1ixaarii posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 12:52AM PST on November 30, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@Laoldar,
Amazed at how it's possible for MS to have so much more money than Sony. I had expected they'd be somewhat on equal footing.
On Singstar: the reason I think it could be/is a big deal is not because of past sales but because I think it's a great concept: I myself am not at all into music games, however seeing the huge success of GH & Rock Band I think: how many people are into rock & guitars and how many people are into singing. I believe the singing market is a much bigger market... if only it got exploited. I don't really agree that Sony neglected to go for the casual market. Actually I believe with things like Buzz and Singstar they were quite the visionaries... I believe they just lucked out in that sector. A big reason I believe is human nature: I listen to music on my mp3 player, I don't want to do it on my cellphone, even though i could. Similarly the new system marketed specifically at this market got a significantly more enthusiastic response than say the ps2 at a new sector. A parent buying a ps2 for casual games may have felt like he's opening the gateway for their children to 'harcore' games...[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 444 ]bids
2Laoldar posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 3:05PM PST on November 29, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@ixaarii,
If you put out a game that sells well below expectations, why would you think it will have a positive effect on hardware sales? Since Sony loses money on that end too, it only becomes a positive if it attracts a new consumer (one who was not planning to buy it for another game) who then goes on to purchase many more titles. It's a very risky strategy that can quickly put a company into financial trouble.
Also, the point of the PS3 is to sell discs...both games and movies (Blu-Ray). If it fails to do either, it will be an immense failure (Sony does not need more awareness, they're easily one of the most recognizable electronics companies in the world).
There is a major difference between what Sony and what Microsoft can do as corporations...MS has the cash. Microsoft has tens of billions of dollars in reserve that they can use to break into a new sector (such as their losses in gaming until this past quarter). Sony does not have that money and in fact recently needed more credit due to their poor performance recently. Whle Microsoft can spend billions in the hopes of future gains, Sony cannot.
I agree with you that Singstar was (and is) a great concept that has been successful. I think a failing of Sony's is that they have failed to capitalize on the mainstream success of the PS/PS2. The strategy of Nintendo's Wii is a natrual progression of the "something for everyone" style of the PS2. Sony was perfectly positioned to control the new so-called "casual" market, but they neglected to do so.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
2ixaarii posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 2:47PM PST on November 29, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@Laoldar,
very good points, but for sony as a whole things can tie in and even out. like you said they may lose with the games to promote the hardware, but then the gains that are made by the hardware is passed on: I don't really understand how being the one who created Bluray benefits them, just like I have yet to learn how big a slice of the pie a hardware manufacturer gets from somebody wanting to make games on their system, but if I'm guessing right for them as a company as a whole might be okay even if the software studios work at a loss just to create bundles with the ps3 hardware. Worst case scenario, even if Bluray popularity brings them nothing financially, they might still benefit as a company as a whole from the living room awareness and penetration through their console, opening up posibilities for integration of different products (psp, cellphones, cameras, tvs...). From what I read in some articles many are saying MS has been doing that for a long time with it's products and consoles: redirecting cash profits from Office and Windows to create a stepping stone in a less profitable sector even at a loss.
All this I believe can work out great for Sony if they do indeed like they said have an overal strategy. And a determination to stick by it even if the media bashes them for a while. But I believe they may do it because I do believe that companies on such a big scale have to have big plans and unlike what journalists seem to often think I believe they not only give the consumers what they want but shape our tastes to the directions that will be in the future profitable. For example I think their whole Singstar concept is amazing. I myself am not into that, but they could turn that into a huuuge industry in itself... but i got sidetracked...
My point was: unlike what I've been reading some sugest that they just move on to an early launch with ps4 I think they just need to survive for now and not stop investing in ps3 and it will work out great for them in the longer term. The only question is if they are able to stay detached enough from the media and mass opinions to continue to invest heavily in something the media is telling them is a lost cause.[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 444 ]bids
1Laoldar posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 11:50AM PST on November 29, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@ixaarii,
I think they're simply aware of how frontloaded video game sales have become. "1 million" was probably said just because it's a nice round number, but the point is that if MGS sells less than 1-2 million in its first month, Konami is in big trouble financially.
I wonder if Sony's focus on internal studios could become a liability. As this article says, publishers have to sell a lot more copies of a PS3 game (as opposed to a PS2 or even a Wii game) to break even...if Sony is moving to producing most PS3 exclusive games themselves, they are assuming a LOT of financial risk. How many PS3 games have made a profit over this first year?
Of course this is likely a move to try and keep pumping out titles for the system at a time when 3rd party developers are hesitant to do so. If consumers don't start buying more PS3 games soon though, it could scare away even more companies.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 182 ]bids
1ixaarii posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 11:44AM PST on November 29, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one@Laoldar,
I don't get why it has to be so much in first day sales and not more spread out. Reading the Reuters article I'm thinking more that Sony made the right move with focusing more on internal studios.
Granted it's a move that accepts the fact that 'accepts defeat' in the sense that it admits it's not going to rule the market like it did with the ps2, but presuming you saw that as inevitable it's a very smart move imo: you can't except big game companies to dedicate exclusives to you, so knowing that you are going to have at least a strong competitor you need to give consumers a strong reason to buy your sistem. Instead of giving a lot of money to third party and endign up with them capitalising on that money in the long term you make your own studios, and while you lose on software sales you're pushing the hardware and building IPs...
Should they pull through the short term (next 2 years) and keep a consistent vision I think that's quite a great strategy.[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 444 ]bids
1Laoldar posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 10:50AM PST on November 29, 2007. RE: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day onebids
19welshbloke posted on Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3) at 10:34AM PST on November 29, 2007. Article: Exclusive MGS4 needs to sell 1 million on day one
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still, the ps3 comunicating nicely with cellphone/psp/camera(they do make cameras too, rihgt?) I think could make it into a livingroom comfy computer.
On the Singstar-rock music games: I used term electronic music because I didn't know how else to refer to exaclty the types of music you pointed out as popular (Kanye West, 50 Cent, Timbaland, Beyonce, etc.) electronic rhythm based music with vocals as it's centerpiece. These popular music songs would be hard to make into a guitar hero/rock band piece, but they fit great into Singstar, making it a possibility for building not as much a game but a music video distribution system with the plus of karaoke. I think that has the potential to become a unimaginably HUGE market. Now I'm a person who grew up on Dream Theater, No doubt loving Explosions in the Sky, 30 Seconds to Mars, ... my point being I'm a 'rock' kinda person myself but to caputure the bulk of the population, the true casual market games that can do the music played in clubs are needed, and for that Singstar I see the closest and with already a brand name and infrastructure in the works.