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Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...
Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...
Videogaming247 - April 4, 2008
Submitted by Mushashi (5) at 7:46AM PST on April 4, 2008
Speaking to videogaming247, Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter has predicted year-end console sales figures that will serve as a sobering reminder to Microsoft that Xbox 360 sales appear to be slowing.
“We expect Sony to have an installed base of 16.3 million PS3s by year end, and Microsoft to have an installed base of 21.3 million Xbox 360s (both figures are U.S. and Europe only, not counting Japan),” he said.
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1ixaarii posted on Industry News at 2:21PM PST on April 7, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@Mushashi,
i for one really liked your comments... i was one of those people who for a relatively long time bought GSL in PS3 in huge numbers only to find that it wasn't changing at as it seems everybody was reacting to the press, until i decided to get out and now it's a different picture...
i wish we had some kind of way of marking in time our opinions. i'd love to see who else here bet their bets on PS3 even before the press changed... I'd love to see such a list and start one for the Wii :P Right now it seems futile to point out PS3 longer plan/viability, but back then I got downbids when i spoke too openly about my prediction. Now I'd like to start a list and see who (if anybody) expects the Wii to fall way short of current high market expectations regardless if they're willing to waste their DKP on this or not. It's these long shots that I find really interesting: who goes successfully against the mass flow?[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 444 ]bids
2Mushashi posted on Industry News at 4:32AM PST on April 6, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@Joe80,
Some users here must quite strongly disagree with these predictions and our discussion as we have both recieved downbids :-)
I noticed that the article itself also recieved at least one downbid yesterday. If these users disagree so strongly, then they should have the courtesy to reply with reasons why they believe so.
Patcher and many other analysts and companies have projected PS3 to outsell X360 this year, including Electronic Arts.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 5 ]bids
1Animate posted on Industry News at 7:38PM PST on April 5, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@apujanata,
It was based on a discussion that took place a few posts before that, where we were referring to PS3 in comparison to 360, not including Wii. I was referring to worldwide, but I'd say the same for NA.
I think Wii might come out on top in hardware, still early though. Still even much more too early to say who will be software sales leader at the end of this generation.[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Industry News at 6:57PM PST on April 5, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@Joe80,
Just curious. When you said "anyone who believe PS3 would come out on top eventually in this generation" are you :
- referring to US only, or WW ?
- also consider Wii (so PS3 #1, Wii #2) or just X360 (like maybe Wii #1, PS3 #2, X360 #3) ?[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1Animate posted on Industry News at 11:57AM PST on April 5, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@Mushashi,
I didn't downbid you, but I disagree. Maybe I was in the minority, or maybe users on SE knew that shorting 360 & buying PS3 would not make them money on the SE until the mainstream believed so, so that they did not lose money. Like any stock that they believe differently about but know if they go into too early the crowd will make them lose $.
I don't believe in the wisdom of general gaming forums on predicting console sales, they have less knowledge than SE users regarding that, they are populated by fanboys, and people with less interest in predicting accurate sales.
I disagree that anyone who believe PS3 would come out on top eventually in this generation would have to be a Sony fanboy. Didn't Pachter also claim Sony would ultimately beat out 360 this entire generation?[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
1Mushashi posted on Industry News at 3:07AM PST on April 5, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...Seems I estimated Michael Pachter projection wrong :-)
“I expect US and European Wii sales of 15 million units this year, expect sales of 360 to be 6.8 million, and expect sales of PS3 to be 10.3 million,” he said. “I expect Japanese sales of 3.5 million Wiis, 2.8 million PS3 and 300,000 Xbox 360s.”
He actually projects PS3 to outsell X360 by 3.5 million units in US/EU this year. His estimate of install base at end of 2007 seem a little low, PS3 at 6 million units and X360 at 14.5 million units.
I wonder how many upbids and downbids Michael Pachter and other analysts would get if they were members here? ;-)
Someone obviously did not like my post earlier where I tried to guess Michael Pachter's numbers as they downbid me :-) , I have noticed my downbid number increasing for reasons I do not really understand, I hope the system I suggested about showing how many upbids/downbids each post you make gets implemented at some point instead of just current netbid which would help you identify what post other users disagreed with.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 5 ]bids
1Mushashi posted on Industry News at 2:36AM PST on April 5, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@Joe80,
You must have been in the minority if you have always thought PS3 would surpass X360, even on this site. Until the last few months, X360 GLS was higher than PS3 GLS price.
If you have read any discussions on major gaming forums in the last year, anyone who strongly believed PS3 hardware would outsell X360 was told they were wrong because NPD showed X360 always outselling PS3 by large number every month and anyone who believed different must be a Sony fanboy.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 5 ]bids
1Animate posted on Industry News at 5:21PM PST on April 4, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@lstormy10,
Yup. Game journalists just go by hardware #'s for consoles & software #'s for game releases. It's behind the times. I think we will see that change, already it is being recognized in this generation, primarily because of what is actually occuring, the increased focus on profit, and how the big 3 marketing departments come up with their PR, especially MS who describe their tie in ratios and software sales figures.[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
1lstormy10 posted on Industry News at 5:15PM PST on April 4, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@Joe80,
Winners and losers in the sense that game journalists like to create are usually not based around the profits that are reaped by the manufacturing company or publishing company.
And we all know that Nintendo could be considered the all-time champ from the profit perspective.
The thing about this generation unlike some past generations that reveals that all three consoles are likely to be successes is that it is very doubtful that we will see any of the companies leave making consoles (like we have seen many companies in the past do because of unsuccessful consoles - one of the most famous obviously being Sega).[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 294 ]bids
1Animate posted on Industry News at 3:56PM PST on April 4, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@ixaarii,
I agree. Journalists, particularly game journalists seem to eager to make predictions & write off something based on the short term. I always thought PS3 would surpass 360, even after its launch and all the way through the past year, as I'm sure most on here did.
The videogame industry has shown that it is one of the more unpredictable things that exist, trends now can be replaced by entirely different trends not far down the line. I also think journalists, again particularly game journalists, like to create winners and losers, champions and defeats. However, this time all three consoles should carve out some decent profit for each company.[ Oracle ] [ Level 26 ] [ Rank: 241 ]bids
2ixaarii posted on Industry News at 3:10PM PST on April 4, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@Mushashi,
it's so funny to me that yesteryear journalism was saying ps3 is dead, it failed to lift off, it arrived too late and now I'm starting to see exactly the opposite expressed for 360...[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 444 ]bids
1Mushashi posted on Industry News at 11:51AM PST on April 4, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@vGInfidel,
As Patcher does not give details on how he calculated these projections, it is hard to guess how he feels the consoles are selling in each region, but I guess he expects PS3 to outperform X360 in EU, and he expects US sales to be similar for both.
He has already stated he expects GTA IV to boost PS3 hardware more than X360, so that may also be a factor in his projections.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 5 ]bids
1vGInfidel posted on Industry News at 11:24AM PST on April 4, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@Mushashi,
so in the next 8months which include the christmas sales period, with massive releases such as GTA4 on the cards, the ps3 is going to sell 7.3million units and yet the 360 is only going to see another 4.8m?. both seem on the low side to me but especially the 360, i cant see it selling under 5million by the end of this year. if so i think we need to reasses our current GLS for the 360 as it will have only sold about 22m units worldwide in over 3 years.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 150 ]bids
1Mushashi posted on Industry News at 11:14AM PST on April 4, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@sagexsdx,
Current estimated US/EU install base is about 9 million PS3 and 16.5 million X360 so he is predicting PS3 to outsell X360 by approximately 2 million units, which looking at relative strength and weakness of sales in US/EU is not impossible.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 5 ]bids
1sagexsdx posted on Industry News at 10:02AM PST on April 4, 2008. RE: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...@Mushashi,
so he thinks that ps3 is going to sell 6 more million and 360 is only gonig to sell 4 more million this year huh... well i guess sony's going to have to start moving units because so far they've only been outselling the 360 per month by less than 100k...[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 148 ]bids
21Mushashi posted on Industry News at 7:46AM PST on April 4, 2008. Article: Pachter: 16.3 mln PS3 & 21.3 mln 360 in US/EU by...Speaking to videogaming247, Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter has predicted year-end console sales figures that will serve as a sobering reminder to Microsoft that Xbox 360 sales appear to be slowing. “We expect Sony to have an installed base of 16.3 million PS3s by year end, and Microsoft to have an installed base of 21.3 million Xbox 360s (both figures are U.S. and Europe only, not counting Japan),” he said.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 5 ]
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an unexplained downbid already :))