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World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King (PC)
WoW China Downtime & possible user declines
WoW China Downtime & possible user declines
GamaSutra - May 29, 2008
Submitted by deftangel (291) at 3:54AM PST on May 29, 2009
As WoW's operator license in China changes hands from The9 to rival NetEase, the game's servers will see some downtime. Analyst Colin Sebastian says this downtime could result in some "subscriber churn" that could affect WoW's total global userbase. "We expect some churn among infrequent users off of the current 11.5M+ WoW subscriber count," says the analyst. "In fact, data suggests declining timecard purchases ahead of the transition." Asia accounts for about 50pc of WoW's global userbase
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1zeromous posted on World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King (PC) at 5:06PM PST on June 19, 2009. RE: WoW China Downtime & possible user declines@deftangel,
That's ridiculous and is exactly why the TSE's numbers will never be accurate. In the real world only Governments prop up markets to create the illusion of wealth. What is Zukaus? some sort of reverse billionaire philanthropist? :D
I can wait too. I might not be rich, but the short has been making me a steady income. If Zukaus figures to up the ante even more, that's not terribly good for the quality of TSE's information.
I have to agree with your assessment of the WoW expansion landscape. I just don't see how long term the expansion could outsell the original pack. That's bunk physics man.[ Veteran ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 878 ]bids
2deftangel posted on World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King (PC) at 5:27PM PST on June 18, 2009. RE: WoW China Downtime & possible user declines@zeromous,
Incidentally, Zukaus is long on this stock for reasons he has elaborated on slightly. He's obviously got the networth to not worry about the money sitting there for a long time so I don't think there are any prospects of him getting out, even if he's having second thoughts on it, which I also doubt :)
He's also still short on Wii Fit, for example.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
2deftangel posted on World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King (PC) at 5:22PM PST on June 18, 2009. RE: WoW China Downtime & possible user declines@zeromous,
Sorry only just seen this comment having posted another article :)
WoW may well have sold 20 million copies. Subscribers do not equal sales. This however is with regard to the second expansion pack targeted towards hardcore players. A good proportion of the WoW userbase are likely to be quite happy playing the base game or Burning Crusade.
I still maintain if Burning Crusade hit a big milestone like 10m we'd have heard about it.
20m for this is just bonkers though and it's very VERY debatable IMO whether this will every see the light of day there. Whatever you think about WoW sales, if you discount China you have to remove 40-45% of the global total.
Game regulation is the field I work in. I can't claim to being an expert on China but I do know the Chinese Govt. are very keen to do something about foreign MMO's.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
2zeromous posted on World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King (PC) at 1:03PM PST on June 3, 2009. RE: WoW China Downtime & possible user declines@deftangel,
I don't post often, for obvious reasons, but I too am heavily short this stock. I have been fighting it with all my resources since it was at 1500DKP.
This stock has no business at this level until it can be shown a previous pack has this number of sales. Not even full WoW can claim 20 million in sales- and thats WITH China.
To whomever is going long on this stock and trying to boost it daily: how do you expect to make money?
It's only a matter of time before the bottom falls so you should probably get out now :)[ Veteran ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 878 ]bids
2deftangel posted on World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King (PC) at 4:01AM PST on May 29, 2009. RE: WoW China Downtime & possible user declines@deftangel,
And yet this stock continues to go up despite the Chinese government offering no encouragement whatsoever regarding the possibility of the Lich King expansion ever seeing a Chinese release. Every day we get closer to Star Craft II being released the slimmer that possibility gets IMO. The Chinese Govt. are desperate to protect & promote the games developed in their homeland.
If Acti-Blizz are doing their sums correctly they'll have figured out that Star Craft II offers much better prospects for growth and prioritise accordingly.
*Disclaimer*
- Subscriptions != Sales
- I'm short on this stock[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
14deftangel posted on World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King (PC) at 3:54AM PST on May 29, 2009. Article: WoW China Downtime & possible user declinesAs WoW's operator license in China changes hands from The9 to rival NetEase, the game's servers will see some downtime. Analyst Colin Sebastian says this downtime could result in some "subscriber churn" that could affect WoW's total global userbase. "We expect some churn among infrequent users off of the current 11.5M+ WoW subscriber count," says the analyst. "In fact, data suggests declining timecard purchases ahead of the transition." Asia accounts for about 50pc of WoW's global userbase[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]
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For the record I'd be short on Wii Fit too if I had more money.