For the last month I've been looking at ps3/xbox360 stock and amazed at how much better xbox360 is viewed and thought that was a great opportunity for profit as I believe ps3 will at the very least sell as much as xbox360. So for a long time I stockpiled a lot of ps3 stocks until I realized it's useless because until more success is reported (should i proove right) it may take year(s) until things start to reflect that. So thinking this is just about as useless as shorting a overvalued highly anticipated game months in advance when the hype is high and reality has yet to settle in I sold all my stock. Obviously now I'm regretting this as I see things are starting to move that way and gone are the days when ps3 would drop to 5200. Still hoping to catch an opportunity like that.
In the meanwhile I took to studying the likelihood of things going like i was anticipated and finally discovered the link i had lost on vgchartz to see compared sales with aligned launches so i am looking at ps3/xbox360/ps2 graph for approximately a two year period:
- first thought: dissapointing that with so many years in between and growth of market ps3 is similar to ps2. Still, taking into consideration the strength of the MS competition this time around and a year head advantage in building a game library and support I guess it can be excused
- the big question "can the ps3 repeat what ps2" did seems to be answered positively by this chart: a big jump in sales happens toward the second year's end, something that I expect to happen to the ps3 too, as by 2008 holiday it will have a strong lineup, i espect a lower price and I doubt consumers will miss a big title like god of war 3 (possibly ffxiii too?). This seems possible to me because as shown not only by ps2 install base but weekly sales charts ps2 still hase a huge and active base of consumers, consumers who've enjoyed the playstation platforms huge perks and who look up to sony. I believe this is a big enough pool that could fuel that bump in sales. I wouldn't be at all surprise, actually I kinda expect ps3 to sell the 120 mil consoles that ps2 did.
- all of these things do not change the huge place xbox360 has won itself in the market through the huge investments made by MS. It doesn't matter that sony had a more "bottom line profit" attitude while MS spent a lot to get here, but it's here and I doubt that will change. I expect it too will do like 100 mil and unlike the original XB won't be abandoned but will survive like the ps2 does now.
- in the meanwhile I expect the Wii graph to start decreasing it's angle of growth starting the second year quite sharply
Those are my silly thoughts. So happy and thankful for simExchange and you guys for being here to discuss such esoteric things.
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In the meanwhile I took to studying the likelihood of things going like i was anticipated and finally discovered the link i had lost on vgchartz to see compared sales with aligned launches so i am looking at ps3/xbox360/ps2 graph for approximately a two year period:
- first thought: dissapointing that with so many years in between and growth of market ps3 is similar to ps2. Still, taking into consideration the strength of the MS competition this time around and a year head advantage in building a game library and support I guess it can be excused
- the big question "can the ps3 repeat what ps2" did seems to be answered positively by this chart: a big jump in sales happens toward the second year's end, something that I expect to happen to the ps3 too, as by 2008 holiday it will have a strong lineup, i espect a lower price and I doubt consumers will miss a big title like god of war 3 (possibly ffxiii too?). This seems possible to me because as shown not only by ps2 install base but weekly sales charts ps2 still hase a huge and active base of consumers, consumers who've enjoyed the playstation platforms huge perks and who look up to sony. I believe this is a big enough pool that could fuel that bump in sales. I wouldn't be at all surprise, actually I kinda expect ps3 to sell the 120 mil consoles that ps2 did.
- all of these things do not change the huge place xbox360 has won itself in the market through the huge investments made by MS. It doesn't matter that sony had a more "bottom line profit" attitude while MS spent a lot to get here, but it's here and I doubt that will change. I expect it too will do like 100 mil and unlike the original XB won't be abandoned but will survive like the ps2 does now.
- in the meanwhile I expect the Wii graph to start decreasing it's angle of growth starting the second year quite sharply
Those are my silly thoughts. So happy and thankful for simExchange and you guys for being here to discuss such esoteric things.