I have been shorting both the PS3 and the WII for sometime now it is a losing battle but at least I am trying. It does mean I make one day and lose big the next but it is a challenge.
The WII seems to be the one with the most inflated price and then the PS3. The 360 is probably overpriced but I do not need to throw money at that one in fact I have gone long after it was shorted massively.
I am waiting to see how the 360 performs this holiday season as I think it has one of its strongest combinations and should perform well. The PS3 I think in europe is still riding its brand although I think we have some indication that the price cut for the 360 has helped it significantly. For me the PS3 has not proved it is doing anything more than staying in third position as it still promises jam tomorrow and Microsoft have always managed to counter any moves that Sony made when attempting jam today.
My personal targets:
PS3 - Short term stop the PS3 from exceeding 75 million personally I think it should be 70 million but a lot depends on if you believe that the PS3 will still be Sony's only console on sale in 7 or 8 years from now. Although I think the system has the oomph to survive the perception will be that it is old when Microsoft with its success this generation plugs any gaps its system had this time round.
WIii - Short term stop the Wii from exceeding 180 million personally I think it should be around 150 this is much harder target as more money gets pumped into this stock and so I have little impact and lose lots of money. My other problem with Nintendo is will they produce another Wii like they have with the DSi extending the life by the back door.
360 - Short term maintain a price of 68 million. A lot depends on how well they do this holiday season and if they under perform I will no doubt lose bucket loads of DKP especially as that would mean the PS3 will by default of performed well.
I think my choices highlight the risk in investing in this stock when compared to say something like World at War which is more predictable than the console lts number which are not.
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The WII seems to be the one with the most inflated price and then the PS3. The 360 is probably overpriced but I do not need to throw money at that one in fact I have gone long after it was shorted massively.
I am waiting to see how the 360 performs this holiday season as I think it has one of its strongest combinations and should perform well. The PS3 I think in europe is still riding its brand although I think we have some indication that the price cut for the 360 has helped it significantly. For me the PS3 has not proved it is doing anything more than staying in third position as it still promises jam tomorrow and Microsoft have always managed to counter any moves that Sony made when attempting jam today.
My personal targets:
PS3 - Short term stop the PS3 from exceeding 75 million personally I think it should be 70 million but a lot depends on if you believe that the PS3 will still be Sony's only console on sale in 7 or 8 years from now. Although I think the system has the oomph to survive the perception will be that it is old when Microsoft with its success this generation plugs any gaps its system had this time round.
WIii - Short term stop the Wii from exceeding 180 million personally I think it should be around 150 this is much harder target as more money gets pumped into this stock and so I have little impact and lose lots of money. My other problem with Nintendo is will they produce another Wii like they have with the DSi extending the life by the back door.
360 - Short term maintain a price of 68 million. A lot depends on how well they do this holiday season and if they under perform I will no doubt lose bucket loads of DKP especially as that would mean the PS3 will by default of performed well.
I think my choices highlight the risk in investing in this stock when compared to say something like World at War which is more predictable than the console lts number which are not.