@Arbiter, @deftangel, I think 50% assumption for X360 version is dangerous. Why ? This article told us that X360 and PS3 version # are very close (less than 30K difference), even though X360 userbase in US are way above PS3 userbase in US. With Europe, we don't have any data, but I think there is a big possibility that PS3 version are doing better compared to X360 version in Europe, since X360 userbase in Europe are only slightly larger than PS3 userbase.
The wildcard here is the PC #. IF we assume that PC got 10% or more of total sales, then I believe that a 40% X360, 50% PS3 (and 10% PC) is more reasonable. This is why I am short on this game. I think 1.2 Million or below is the right price of this stock.
1
@deftangel,
I think 50% assumption for X360 version is dangerous. Why ?
This article told us that X360 and PS3 version # are very close (less than 30K difference), even though X360 userbase in US are way above PS3 userbase in US. With Europe, we don't have any data, but I think there is a big possibility that PS3 version are doing better compared to X360 version in Europe, since X360 userbase in Europe are only slightly larger than PS3 userbase.
The wildcard here is the PC #. IF we assume that PC got 10% or more of total sales, then I believe that a 40% X360, 50% PS3 (and 10% PC) is more reasonable.
This is why I am short on this game. I think 1.2 Million or below is the right price of this stock.