@PhilHarrision, Last shipment we know, by March 31, 209, is 18.22 Million (more or less). Since Wii Fit are almost always in sold out status in US, and keep on getting #1 in UK in 2009, we can safely assume that shipment=sold. In 3 month period of Jan 1 - Mar 31, 2009, Nintendo shipped 4.21 Million unit of Wii Fit, during a slow period.
Question : - When will Wii Fit Plus release ? Current release date is a vague Fall 09. If you believe that it will be released Nov 09, is it too much to expect Nintendo to ship at least 8 Million unit in the period of April 1 - Oct 30, 2009 (six month period, with June period included)? If you agree with 8 Million unit, then you have 26 Million shipment / sold.
If you want to go cautious, you might expect 5 Million more sales from April to Oct 09. This means any short you do at 2500 DKP price point only give you 10% potential profit. I believe that 10% potential profit for any short is too little, too risky.
What happen IF Nintendo decided to continue selling Wii Fit, instead of discontinuing them and replacing them with Wii Fit Plus (2 SKU at the same time) ? What happen IF Nintendo decided to release a stand alone Wii Fit SKU (without Balance Board), for those new Wii Fit Plus owner who didn't have Wii Fit ?
Even if everything is according to the best case scenario for lowest LTD, shorting this stock is still very, very risky, with low potential profit (IMO).
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Last shipment we know, by March 31, 209, is 18.22 Million (more or less). Since Wii Fit are almost always in sold out status in US, and keep on getting #1 in UK in 2009, we can safely assume that shipment=sold. In 3 month period of Jan 1 - Mar 31, 2009, Nintendo shipped 4.21 Million unit of Wii Fit, during a slow period.
Question :
- When will Wii Fit Plus release ? Current release date is a vague Fall 09. If you believe that it will be released Nov 09, is it too much to expect Nintendo to ship at least 8 Million unit in the period of April 1 - Oct 30, 2009 (six month period, with June period included)? If you agree with 8 Million unit, then you have 26 Million shipment / sold.
If you want to go cautious, you might expect 5 Million more sales from April to Oct 09. This means any short you do at 2500 DKP price point only give you 10% potential profit. I believe that 10% potential profit for any short is too little, too risky.
What happen IF Nintendo decided to continue selling Wii Fit, instead of discontinuing them and replacing them with Wii Fit Plus (2 SKU at the same time) ? What happen IF Nintendo decided to release a stand alone Wii Fit SKU (without Balance Board), for those new Wii Fit Plus owner who didn't have Wii Fit ?
Even if everything is according to the best case scenario for lowest LTD, shorting this stock is still very, very risky, with low potential profit (IMO).