I would have to agree with Laoldar. The PS3s current trend of bad sales is nothing new, it has plagued the console since launch. Also zeromous, while your small test group of people is a good start for trying to gain a larger picture for whether or not PS3 owners (or future owners) will pick this game up, it may be that your limited sample is from a biased group of PS3 owners, just as if I asked most of the people I know that have a PS3 if they will pick up GT5, nearly all of them would say yes (because most of the PS3 owners I know like the GT series), but it would be rash to apply that to the general group of PS3 owners.
Also, saying that just 1 in 5 PS3 owners needs to pick this up, while seemingly not that hard, is actually quite hard for most games to accomplish. While I agree this game will sell around a million (1.2 million to stay consistent with my previous prediction), I don't think it will have as high an attach rate. Rather I think this game (through the fact that it will also be sold online) could have a very long tail and while having a lower attach rate, it won't because it is selling bad, rather because it keeps around the same sales but the user base of the PS3 grows. To make a more solid example, I could see this game having a Super Smash Bros. Melee like long tail.
I would get into the current simexchange pricing of the PS3 (which I think might be a bit overpriced, but if Sony keeps the PS3 going for a decade, it might not be), but that is for another stock page. I still think this game, as a conservative estimate, will sell around 1.2 million over its lifetime.
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Also, saying that just 1 in 5 PS3 owners needs to pick this up, while seemingly not that hard, is actually quite hard for most games to accomplish. While I agree this game will sell around a million (1.2 million to stay consistent with my previous prediction), I don't think it will have as high an attach rate. Rather I think this game (through the fact that it will also be sold online) could have a very long tail and while having a lower attach rate, it won't because it is selling bad, rather because it keeps around the same sales but the user base of the PS3 grows. To make a more solid example, I could see this game having a Super Smash Bros. Melee like long tail.
I would get into the current simexchange pricing of the PS3 (which I think might be a bit overpriced, but if Sony keeps the PS3 going for a decade, it might not be), but that is for another stock page. I still think this game, as a conservative estimate, will sell around 1.2 million over its lifetime.