The problem isn't even neccesarily if a Wii Play 2 comes out. The thrust of the problem is the value of this stock is directly associated with the value of the controller, not the game itself. Compounded by the fact that this stock is for lifetime sales. Any number of things could cause this stock to plummet.
Consider any of the following scenarios:
- A sequel is released. - A competing game with a controller attached is released. - The price of the controller drops.
Any of these things could have a huge impact on the future of this stock. To naively assume that the attach rate will continue for the entire lifetime of this stock, I feel, is a big mistake.
To me, it's not a matter of if this stock will crash, but when. If it's soon, this stock will plummet. The longer it goes, the safer your investment will be, as the sales have already been done.
4
The problem isn't even neccesarily if a Wii Play 2 comes out. The thrust of the problem is the value of this stock is directly associated with the value of the controller, not the game itself. Compounded by the fact that this stock is for lifetime sales. Any number of things could cause this stock to plummet.
Consider any of the following scenarios:
- A sequel is released.
- A competing game with a controller attached is released.
- The price of the controller drops.
Any of these things could have a huge impact on the future of this stock. To naively assume that the attach rate will continue for the entire lifetime of this stock, I feel, is a big mistake.
To me, it's not a matter of if this stock will crash, but when. If it's soon, this stock will plummet. The longer it goes, the safer your investment will be, as the sales have already been done.