@zukaus, ATVI continues to decline, down below 19.50 now. I would assume the market is pricing in the success of GH3 and CoD4 up to this point and is not pleased with the results--though I can't see why.
Well not much seems to be holding up in this market but I wouldn't describe Activision as crumbling. Right now ATVI is at about the same price as it was on Oct 19th when I last posted about it and my opinion has not changed since then. I believe ATVI is still good. I also still think that if you have the opportunity I would use this market weakness to pick up ATVI in the low 20's.
Ultimately I have faith that despite all this worry about bad loans and dollar weakness, that Santa will deliver and Timmy will get his delightfully lead free copy of Guitar Hero or Call of Duty.
However I have to emphasize again that I do not own ATVI and I still prefer Nintendo. I have a long position in NTDOY my video game stock of choice.
@zukaus, ATVI reported a sufficiently good quarter and guided higher, but the stock continues to crumble. Guitar Hero III is appearing to sell very well and the reviews for CoD4 are as high as they can be, but the market isn't liking any of it. What are your thoughts now? I really don't understand the bearishness on ATVI.
Hey guys I'm sorry I never replied to your comments earlier. I've been very busy these past couple months and I haven't had as much free time to spend here on the SimExchange.
I'd like to throw in my thoughts about ATVI and video game stocks in general. Although I don't own ATVI I think it is good and will go higher through at least Christmas. We are going through a pullback right now and I think if you can pickup ATVI in the $20-21 range you will be well rewarded.
The market is not expecting very much from us consumers in general this Chirstmas, but I believe videogames will be the bright spot in spending. Therefore I am bullish on the entire video game sector but as always I would stick to the higher quality companies like Activision, Ubisoft, or my favorite Nintendo of which I still have a long position.
I would like to mention that I would stay away from Electronic Arts. It seems like the giant is still having a difficult time capitalizing on Nintendo's success and their Christmas lineup for the Wii and the DS appear to be very weak again. I don't understand why there is no scheduled version of Rock Band for the Wii. Wouldn't you want what is supposed to be one of your biggest new titles to launch on the best selling console? Additionally I also think they are making a big mistake pricing Rock Band at $169 forcing gamers to purchase the complete set or nothing at all. Only the most hardcore Harmonix fans will be picking this package up and you can be sure there will be few sets picked up as Christmas gifts. However this should all be beneficial for Guitar Hero III and Activision.
Long story short I believe ATVI, UBSFF, and NTDOY are all good.
Anybody else in ATVI stock? It has been in the $22 range for about a month now--I am hoping the market will start pricing in the greater upside of GH3 and CoD4 soon. I guess we probably need to wait until the games to come out for Wall Street to realize how big they will actually be this year.
@Stitch, ATVI could be a good play in the video game sector, but the video game sector in general is not a very good play IMO. Right now, Wall Street is hot on tech, but that means Apple, Google, RIM, etc. Investors are chasing the big names that have already been up big. I haven't seen much action in the video game sector other than Nintendo.
Zukaus, you want to chime in here? You always have some good thoughts on the actual stocks.
What are the thoughts here on ATVI has a real world investment? We are forecasting Guitar Hero 3 to be huge, but I'm sure Wall Street already knows this. However, we are forecasting CoD4 to be way bigger than CoD3. I don't think Wall Street knows this. Is this a buying opportunity? ATVI is trading at a 52-week high already though.
@Arbiter, that is true. However, I would like to see more potentially blockbuster IPs get listed. TH is becoming a dated franchise, especially seen by this latest iteration.
I hope the stock discussion on this site picks up. Used to go to the Yahoo boards for stock discussion but those have died out (at least the video game company stocks). The Google Finance boards never got started (like 1 post every few days). The simExchange is perfect because of the pool of knowledgeable video game industry folks here.
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