@Just_Ben, I think after the last few NPD data releases, people are realizing how overly bullish they are on game sales. The market has traditionally been overly optimistic in sales, but over time its been learning and getting better. I think this decline is that realization. GH3 is a big franchise, which results in a premium here.
This stock is overvalued. This game is being released on Xbox 360, PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, Wii, PC, Mac where as Guitar Hero II was only released on the PS2 and Xbox360. Guitar Hero II sold about 1.65 million copies on the Xbox360 with only one other version on another platform (the PS2). How will Guitar Hero III on the Xbox360, which is split across six different platforms, hope to sell nearly 1 million more copies than Guitar Hero II on the Xbox360 which was split across two platforms. This should be around 190DKP.
I think Rock Band will be the better game because Harmonix (makers of all Guitar Hero games) is developing it. However, I don't think it will sell as well as Guitar Hero 3 because of the price & release date in comparison, but it could do a significant % compared to GH3 sales. If GH3, which is now being made by Tony Hawk developer Neversoft, somehow turns out really bad, I could see RB outdo it in sales, but this is unlikely because it would be really hard to screw up what Harmonix already put in place.
The casual crowd will buy up a lot of GH3 sales, while the hardcore will go for RB, and probably partner with their buddies to make a band. I think they can coexist to some extent, you'd think the sales would then not be good enough for both games to continue, but this is a genre that both Activision and EA probably want to grab as their own so future entries in each game are probably very likely(If RB bombs though, EA will not go for the full band experience sequel). Not to mention people will already have the peripherals by then. You'll likely see Activision try to make future releases move beyond just guitar (if RB does well), unless they want to maintain a guitar fanbase only because they see RB's strategy as too risky+costly. If ATV do move beyond just guitar, RB will be a step ahead by then because the peripherals will already be in hands of consumers, Harmonix is the developer, and RB will have been known as the full band game.
If RB bombs, ATV will likely make RB's guitar compatible with GH4.
GH3 will get more sales in its early months than RB, but RB could have a longer tail. RB does support GH guitars.
We may also see different music games in the future that utilize even different instruments or a developer will again take a cue from Konami (Beatmania)...
@Jesse2050, I think the DDR analogy is flawed in that all of the similar games were perceived by nearly all involved as clones. Bemani was doing DDR before and after the craze. Also, the other dance games rarely added to the formula. They may have increased difficulty, or added (fairly basic) custom tracks, but there was so little to add that they didn't distinguish themselves.
There are two differences here, and they're why I think Rock Band will do well (for its price). First, the Guitar Hero developers are the Rock Band developers. People in the know are already assuming that Rock Band will be better made, since its developers have the experience- Harmonix has only once made a non-musical game, Neversoft has never done a music game before. Second, Rock Band is not a Guitar Hero clone. It does have the guitar element, but by including drums and vocals, it distinguishes itself from its competitor. Most of the people I see interested in Rock Band are into it more for the drums; that's something no other game (in America) offers.
Price is going to be the vital point here. We still don't know what the game + 1 instrument is going to cost. We do know that they will exist. We can assume the game + guitar will be comparable to GHIII ($80 or $90), and game + mic should be only $70 or $80, since the microphone is the same that usually raises other games by $10. Drums, we just don't know, though I would guess $90-$100.
All in all, I think GHIII has the casual and super-hardcore buyers covered- people who just know the name, and people who want the super-high difficult the game promises. Those sales will probably work out PS2 first, Wii or 360 in the middle, and PS3 last. Rock Band will sell to the Guitar Hero nuts, the people who want more songs to play and more challenge. But it'll also sell to the SingStar fans in Europe, and every wannabe drummer out there who can't get their hands on DrumMania. I'd predict the 360 version leading, even over the PS2 version.
Can they co-exist? Absolutely. It's best that they do; neither series should fall into the Madden rut. "Better" is too subjective for me to answer without getting to play either game. I'm getting both, personally. I've always liked rhythm games, and these are the first that really hit mainstream mentality. Plus, I wanna learn the drums.
I don't think it's a matter of "co-existing". Rock Band is priced so high that it can't really exist as a competitor, unless they come out with a guitar-only bundle for the same price.
Another matter is, do 360/PS3 owners want to sing? Playing a fake guitar doesn't require real guitar skills, but a singing game is somewhat dependent on being able to carry a tune. I think Rock Band is a well-intentioned game destined to flop. Plus guitar Hero has the recognition of a big new franchise.
Interesting... EA rarely makes mistakes when they enter into a new market. If this thing bombs, investors will really start questioning managements ability to grow the company into new markets.
They broke into skating well with SKATE.
Why they keep going after Activision is beyond me....american on american crime.....
I'd like to see EA crack into the RPG market. That market is pretty open for the American publishers
I think Rock band has some problems: It is not cheap if you want it the way it intend to be played. If you want solo or over the internet you will most likley only buy a guitar, and can just leave it with GH. I mean how many people pay such amount of money for a casual game? Eiter they find a real killer app they can offer GH can not, or Rock band will bump hard if you compare it too GH.
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