I didn't necessarily mean Halo 3 was the biggest game of all time (I worded what I really meant poorly before), but that it was the biggest release of all time (so far). I think we can all agree on that?
Anyway, I do have to reaffirm that this game will probably sell 10-12 million copies, but no more than 14 million. Let's say that the Wii install base gets to about 100 million total lifetime sales--14 million would be be 14% of all Wii owners getting this game. (Remember this is all approximate) If we hold to this model, then about 1 in every 7 Wii owners would buy this game. That is pretty generous considering that about 2/3 of all Wii owners haven't even used the system in a long time.
Halo has mainly UK and US to work with, and a little Europe. Galaxy is WW and will have better legs than Halo 3. 20 million is a lot, even for a mario, we can agree, but Mario is a selling game. So I tend to agree that 20 million is to high, but I don't agree on the it won't beat halo part. Mario is way more "casual" than Halo.
I don't know why you call Halo 3 "the biggest game". It makes a lot of money in the front end because Microsoft has a rapid fanbase of a few million players. Due to the limitation of the Halo fanbase, and the relatively small install base of the 360, I doubt it will get to 10 million copies sold. I personally doubt it will pass 7 million.
18 million is likely a high prediction for Mario, I agree. But unlike many over-priced games on here, Mario is one of the few with the pedigree of sales to back it up (4 Mario platformer games have sold over 17 million copies) and it is coming out on the top selling system of this console generation. I think this game will probably outsell Halo 3 (it'll take a while to pass it though), but I think a prediction of 10-12 million isn't out of the question.
@CrimsonFalcon167, Halo games are nowhere near as big as Mario games. Halo games aren't even as big as GTA--they are no where near the size of Mario games. Halo 3 definitely isn't the biggest game--just big early sales. Any Pokemon game beats a Halo game. Empirically, Mario games blow away Halo games by 2x or 3x sales.
Okay, I know there are a lot of Wiis out there, but this game is not going to sell 19/18 million copies. THe price on this is ridiculous. If the price of Halo 3 (The biggest game with the most advertising of all time) is less than 1000, there is no way in hell this will beat it. Maybe it might get to 12 million, but still...
@Joe80, I moved the Metacritic Futures discussion here since this thread is supposed to be about Super Mario Galaxy. Maybe all these comments can be moved?
"It is 100 percent not a review", a Nintendo spokesman told us, who went on to confirm that "no one in the world will have access to final game code until October 10 at the earliest."
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I didn't necessarily mean Halo 3 was the biggest game of all time (I worded what I really meant poorly before), but that it was the biggest release of all time (so far). I think we can all agree on that?
Anyway, I do have to reaffirm that this game will probably sell 10-12 million copies, but no more than 14 million. Let's say that the Wii install base gets to about 100 million total lifetime sales--14 million would be be 14% of all Wii owners getting this game. (Remember this is all approximate) If we hold to this model, then about 1 in every 7 Wii owners would buy this game. That is pretty generous considering that about 2/3 of all Wii owners haven't even used the system in a long time.
If we hold those statistics to be true, then we can it's not a large jump that the total maximum number of people that would buy this game is about 30 million (lifetime possible). From that we can say that the current price is on the high end of possibility. Probably the low this would sell is 10 million, based on my predictions, so the game will probably sell between 10-20 million units, most likely ending up between there somewhere (I'll say the high is probably 16 million now).
Considering all this, the stock is probably going to drop like a rock when the game comes out like what happens to so many other stocks on the simExchange. I'd expect it to drop by at least 200 points, maybe 400. My advice would be to sell and have a shorted position on this soon before the prices start dropping.
Feel free to challenge my predictions, I'm open to hearing other opinions.