The 45 DKP is reasonable. Japan might be a little bit too high, while US is a little bit low. Not sure about how it will do In others (Europe etc), since I don't really follow Europe sales (no actual sales data made me less interested in them).
Some thing you need to consider when doing lifetime : - Will Sega release a platinum / player's choice, which has lower MSRP (say USD 30 instead of USD 50) in the future ? - Wii games usually have longer legs than X360 games (not sure how PS3 games legs are). The major reason is because of the overabundant choice for games on X360, and because their gamer are usually hardcore (compared to Wii's casual).
I believe the 45 DKP might be a little bit too low, especially if there is a lower priced release in the future. I remember Super Mario Sunshine selling endlessly (in US) because of the player's choice release.
@apujanata,I can understand how this might sell 10dkp (future) but i am huge short for the lifetime. My estimates total from japan 100,000 (10dkp) America (20dkp) others (15dkp) TOTAL (45dkp).I think their fair. Dont you agree?
I think your 6 DKP estimate is too low. My own estimate is between 10 DKP to 15 DKP, and I am more inclined toward 10 DKP (bigger possibility of falling near that).
Even though the retailer feedback is mostly "not moving", I believe (or I hope) that this game will get a good boost : - from buyers of Mario & Sonic, which enjoyed a good holiday #. If children are satisfied with Sega, they might be more inclined to test them out. - word of mouth from Non-Sega hardcore. The Sega hardcore, who played Night before, might compare this game to the previous game, and found it lacking. For those who has not played them before, they might find this a good game.
BTW, thanks for whoever drove down this price. I got a very big profit from this stock (Dec 07 ones) today.
I can see this dropping because of the VGC data.I didnt expect it to fall this fast.Maybe this is way overpriced it got little hype (very important around christmas) , didnt get great reviews ,and its ment to be targeting children but they released it 2 weeks before christmas.To be honest it wont make 9.70 . Being optimistic 6dkp (future) 35dkp (lifetime)
Shane Bettenhausen weighs in: "For serious Nights fans, Journey offers a bittersweet reunion that reminds us of what was so singularly special about Sega's airborne dreamweaver. Unfortunately, attempting to evolve the formula creates a host of new problems and issues that ultimately diminish the game's overall appeal. That said, this still represents one of the finest original third-party games available for Wii, and younger players will find a lot to love in this gameplay-rich adventure."
4
VGC Sales Numbers -> 0.18million
There was at least a bit of method to my madness.