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Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?
Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?
1up - January 4, 2008
Submitted by sagexsdx (148) at 11:53AM PST on January 4, 2008
In the latest issue of EGM, rumor hound Q-man got a really interesting tidbit from a mole at Microsoft: a secret first party sequel is already being worked on for the next Xbox console.
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1ixaarii posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 2:34AM PST on January 6, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?@lstormy10,
I'm wondering if criteria might be quite different for a portable VS big screen system, battery life vs features...[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 444 ]bids
1ixaarii posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 2:30AM PST on January 6, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?bids
1Gaara42 posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 7:05PM PST on January 5, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?bids
2apujanata posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 5:08PM PST on January 5, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?@ixaarii,
I haven't really think about LTD breakdown, but I will do it now.
Pessimistic estimate : (using GCN, the worst selling last-gen console H/W in US).
2001 : 1,205,666 (launch year). Wii : 1,080,310. Multiplier : 90%
2002 : 2,258,003 (include Dec). Wii : 4,939,485 (exclude Nov). Removing Dec 02 from GCN give us a multiplier of 2.96
Based on those data, I will use 2.5 multiplier for 2008, 2.0 multiplier for 2009, 1.5 for 2010 and 1.0 for 2010
2003 : 3,268,266. Wii 2008 (est) : 8,170,665
2004 : 2,122,024. Wii 2009 (est) : 4,244,048
2005 : 1,696,481. Wii 2010 (est) : 2,544,722
2006 : 756,653. Wii 2011 (est) : 756,653
I will then use multiplier of 2.5 to get the WW figure.
2007 : 20.4 Mill
2008 : 10.6 Mill
2009 : 6.3 Mill
2010 : 1.8 Mill
I notice that this calculation is much worse than yours.
Optimistic estimate :
Instead of using GCN trending, use PS2 trending (vs 2007 sales for Wii, or 2001 sales for PS2). Assume 1.6 Million Wii sold in Dec 2007. Use 2.5 Multiplier to get WW # from US #. Disregard result of 2012 and above (assume Wii has shorter life span compared to PS2).
2008 : 22.2
2009 : 16.7
2010 : 11.6
2011 : 14.6 (I adjust this downward to 10, to signify shorter life span)
Total LTD = 77.5 Million
My 2008 - 2011 total is -2.8+1.7+4.6+5 = 8.5 Million higher than yours, even after reducing Wii potential a lot (4.6 for 2011, 12.5 for 2012 and 7.5 for 2013, = total of 24.6 Million). Without reducing Wii potential, LTD is 103.1 Million.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1lstormy10 posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 4:47PM PST on January 5, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?@ixaarii,
The largest problem that I have with your predictions for yearly sales of the Wii is that the fact that many of your reasons of why its sales will not last or drop significantly in a couple of years parallel those arguments that were presented by many people back when the DS first launched. And we all know how the DS has ended up.[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 294 ]bids
1ixaarii posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 4:04PM PST on January 5, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?@ixaarii,
If you are of a different opinion I would love to see your estimations for the yearly sales of wii for it's lifecycle. Off the top of my head I'll go with aproximations like
2007: 20mil
2008: 25mil
2009: 15mil
2010: 7mil
2011+: 5mil
Would love to read everybody's!!![ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 444 ]bids
2ixaarii posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 3:56PM PST on January 5, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?@apujanata,
I love what you're saying. Yes, I see the tension too... but it's a really fun bet to make... I'm happy TSE gives me this oportunity to put a price on my beliefs. This way if I turn out to be wrong it will be a valuable lesson. But like you said the Wii is quite the wildcard. That's why even though I'm anticipating 70-80mil I will probably not go into shorting with less than 100mil... also there's the time factor... even should I prove right it will not be eveident in the shares for another year-two probably... but then again this is one of the reasons I love TSE: when I joined my girlfriend told me that I'll get bored of it soon, like she did of things like Ogame...but with TSE it's different, not only because it's about the games industry which I follow and speculate about anyway but also because it allows for both very micromanagement play and very long term play, and all the inbetween mixes. Yes, I do believe Wii simply had the right right approach with the all important right price at a time when many had stopped seeing improvements in games and from higher investments and when competitors had very high prices. I think it arived at a time when our industry was facing a huge problem: a lot of new technology but lackign the infrastructure and artwork pipeline to take advantage of it in mass, resulting in powerful hardware with few games using it even 20%... and by that I don't mean that cpu/gpu usage was 20%, I'm sure those are 90%+... I mean the fact that the ammount of content in games is very much lacking: what use is there in large technology powering a city full of people of 99.9% of them are faceless puppet duplicates of eachother with no character, dialogue or interactivity. What I believe is happening now and for the years to come is strong consolidation in the tools of the industry, the artwork pipelines, preparing for times when technology falls a bit to the background because content is richer. I wish Wii was a move in that direction too but I don't see Nintendo leading things that way. My point being that I expect in the future platforms with more content and less changes, but for that the platforms need a stronger technical foundation than the Wii currently has. I don't see Wii's technology being satisfactory to everybody for more than 2009. Of course my whole theory is predicated on Wii as a gamer console: if it becomes a device that core gamers stop caring about but that continues to sell without their support... well, then all my theories could fall. I think part of it's present success was a lot of gamer excitement and support both because of excitement and from "nintendad" reasons. One thing that could change my mind is very solid Disney support and a solid market for kids with a very morally un-ambiguous branding. However for core-gamers, and by that I mean people who regard their gaming time as at least as precious as their tv/movie/book/music entertainment forms, I am skeptical that Mii type stylized avatars will win for long in the face of characters to identify with in which you can configure everything from sex to hair color and tone of voice which I'm starting to see emerging as a standard. I am the first to say that hardware is not as important as content, however not only do I see Wii as clearly pointing into not too strong content (many mini games, low budget productions...) but I think streaming worlds with no loading times are increasingly important... and I don't just mean for technology inclined people, I mean for the simple person who'd be willing to enjoy a game but is pulled out of the experience by a loading screen/waiting. From what I can tell right now that could be a big problem for the Wii where the other platforms seem to have a hope.
Do I think a platform which other than the motion control is a generation behind it's competitors can do more than 5 years? No. Even high-tech platforms could become old in 5 years... Do I think Wii can do 100+ mil in 5 years? Personally I doubt it can do 20mil/year for more than 4... but this is where the "educated bet" becomes interesting :D Long live TSE!!![ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 444 ]bids
4apujanata posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 10:31AM PST on January 5, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?@ixaarii,
Be very careful with Wii. I always underestimated them in the past, and it has bite me more than I care to acknowledge. I also underestimate DS in the past. I don't know what is the reason for Nintendo to be so successful with NDS and Wii, but it is there, and I don't dare shortsell DS and Wii anymore (unless I see a 4 Million Wii Dec 07 prediction).
I think your judgement is possibly clouded by the "Wii is a fad" thinking. Once I also think the same, but now I am not so sure about it. Remember the "Pokemon is a fad" ? I believe 2008 sales for Wii will be > 2007 sales, especially if the supply constrain things has been solved. You have put your money by shortselling Wii, but I haven't got the guts to put my money by buying Wii (yet), since the current prediction is higher than my conservative estimate (> 100 Million).[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1ixaarii posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 6:09AM PST on January 5, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?@apujanata,
I think both 360 & ps3 will have longer lifespans as I think the industry will slowly move towards game platforms like tv is a movie platform, but with the ps3 doing 2-3 years longer, as for the Wii I don't think this december is really relevant, we're still in the heat of hotness & supply, it's 08 & 09 that will prove me wrong (I expect 08 to be less excited and 09 more or less inertia before before new wii).[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 444 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 8:16PM PST on January 4, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?@ixaarii,
PS3 have their "10 years lifetime" plan, which I am not sure might work, but there is a possibility it could work, especially if next generation XBOX is priced expensively (like $400 or even more).
Wii, I am not too sure. If Wii is the leading console in this gen, it might have immunity from new gen (just like PS2 from X360, and PS1 from Dreamcast). There is too much uncertainty about Wii, the first console to have supply constraint situation worldwide one year after launch (even PS2 is not supply constrained worldwide one year after launch).
I think it really depend on this Dec 07 result. If Wii got > 1.8 Million, then I think the effect is minimal.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1ixaarii posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 6:24PM PST on January 4, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?@apujanata,
that's a tough one. Even though my theory is MS launching sooner and all leading to alternative MS/Sony console launches each launching mid-lifecycle of the other providing an option for both the peopel willing to spend a lot for cutting edge and those who want longer lasting, I think 50Mil is quite possible. we have 18mil in 2 years, 40 mil in another two... and even if at that point we'd have a new launch (I'd expect more like 5 year cycle) this older platform would imho still be kept around so I think the numbers could still be okay. It's the ps3 & wii numbers that I think are way off...[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 444 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 5:59PM PST on January 4, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?bids
1ixaarii posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 5:12PM PST on January 4, 2008. RE: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?bids
16sagexsdx posted on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) at 11:53AM PST on January 4, 2008. Article: Microsoft Already Working on Game For Next Xbox?
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Obviously this bias could be a big reason for me to be wrong in my estimates. Should this turn out: my congratulations to those who take advantage of my foolishness and subjectivity and take my DKP ;)