July 2010 NPD Sales Data

Video game sales in July 2010 were in line with market expectations after months of disappointing sales. Total hardware units sold were 1.394 million compared to 1.385 expected. Total software sales came in at $403.3 million vs 429.6 million expected. Xbox 360 had a blockbuster month, leading the console market by a wide margin.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.

• US Hardware in July 2010

  Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  Nintendo DS	398,400	410,100	-2.85%
  Xbox 360	443,500	390,800	+13.49%
  Nintendo Wii	253,900	296,200	-14.28%
  PLAYSTATION 3	214,500	223,800	-4.16%
  PlayStation Portable	84,000	64,200	+30.84%
  Total Hardware Units	1,394,300	1,385,100	+0.66%

• US Software in July 2010

  Rank	Title	Actual units	Expected units	% From Expected
  1	NCAA Football 11 (Xbox 360)	368,000	343,900	+7.01%
  2	NCAA Football 11 (PS3)	298,800	297,500	+0.44%
  3	Crackdown (Xbox 360)	208,800	239,100	-12.67%
  4	Super Mario Galaxy 2(Wii)	193,000	--	--
  5	LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (DS)	141,700	--	--
  6	Red Dead Redemption (Xbox 360)	--	--	--
  7	LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4 (DS)	--	--	--
  8	Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (DS)	--	--	--
  9	New Super Mario Bros (Wii)	--	--	--
  10	Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360)	--	--	--
  	Total Software Sales	$403.3M	$429.6M	-6.12%

The market also tracked the sales of Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies (DS) which did not make the top 10. The trades for this future will be rolled back.

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).