@apujanata, Indeed, it is all speculation. I base myself in several personal appreciations, some are based on facts and some speculation while others are pure speculation.
1. I have followed the Layton game at Media Create and noticed it has stayed in the Top 30 for several weeks, occasionally jumping (like 17th this past week). The game received a bump that is still lasting after the second was released (it was not in the top 50 from September 17 to November 11, then appeared 47, 44, 42 and then jumped to 24 the week the second part was released, then 31, 30, 48 on the week before Christmas, then 25, 25 and last week 17), and I think they both will get another bump when the last part is released. With just 4k per week in average it will break the million this year. Note that in Amazon the game is still going with just 8% off (virtually full price).
2. The DS has a record of selling twice as many copies of casual games in Europe than in North America (Brain Age, Nintendogs, etc). With Layton at 800k in Japan, and a current stock of 1.6m here, it means it needs 800k in Europe and North America combined to reach that base: 266k in North America plus 534k in Europe. With 1m in Japan alone, it means 200k in North America and 400k in Europe alone.
3. The game is aimed at a wide spectrum of players, not just hardcore gamers, and that always gives me a plus, especially when dealing with DS and PS2 games. Most of the puzzles are logic ones, which can make this title to be included as a "high end" Touch Generation! game. The title name is not violent like Assassin Creed, which makes it appealing with parents, and has the "Harry Potter and the ..." format. While superfluous, I think that gives the impression to the casual player that there will be sequels (gamers know there are sequels, but moms and dads do not), something necessary when you are working without a Mario or Sonic in the title. And the graphics have that Hayao Miyazaki feeling, making it appealing for parents to buy. It is a game both parents and children can play at the same time.
The most similar games I can think of are Touch Detective, Hotel Dusk and Phoenix Wright, but none of those were as successful in Japan as Layton, making a comparison moot. Games that appeal to the casual market are always underestimated (who thought Carnival Games would sell 500k?).
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Indeed, it is all speculation. I base myself in several personal appreciations, some are based on facts and some speculation while others are pure speculation.
1. I have followed the Layton game at Media Create and noticed it has stayed in the Top 30 for several weeks, occasionally jumping (like 17th this past week). The game received a bump that is still lasting after the second was released (it was not in the top 50 from September 17 to November 11, then appeared 47, 44, 42 and then jumped to 24 the week the second part was released, then 31, 30, 48 on the week before Christmas, then 25, 25 and last week 17), and I think they both will get another bump when the last part is released. With just 4k per week in average it will break the million this year. Note that in Amazon the game is still going with just 8% off (virtually full price).
2. The DS has a record of selling twice as many copies of casual games in Europe than in North America (Brain Age, Nintendogs, etc). With Layton at 800k in Japan, and a current stock of 1.6m here, it means it needs 800k in Europe and North America combined to reach that base: 266k in North America plus 534k in Europe. With 1m in Japan alone, it means 200k in North America and 400k in Europe alone.
3. The game is aimed at a wide spectrum of players, not just hardcore gamers, and that always gives me a plus, especially when dealing with DS and PS2 games. Most of the puzzles are logic ones, which can make this title to be included as a "high end" Touch Generation! game. The title name is not violent like Assassin Creed, which makes it appealing with parents, and has the "Harry Potter and the ..." format. While superfluous, I think that gives the impression to the casual player that there will be sequels (gamers know there are sequels, but moms and dads do not), something necessary when you are working without a Mario or Sonic in the title. And the graphics have that Hayao Miyazaki feeling, making it appealing for parents to buy. It is a game both parents and children can play at the same time.
The most similar games I can think of are Touch Detective, Hotel Dusk and Phoenix Wright, but none of those were as successful in Japan as Layton, making a comparison moot. Games that appeal to the casual market are always underestimated (who thought Carnival Games would sell 500k?).