@apujanata, Good point. The market always seems to overvalue "famous" stocks around release date (people caught up in the hype), so I wouldn't be surprised to see GTA4 get pumped up to 20M combined right around release. You can wait out then short but currently at 19M combined you are limited to upside risk, no way this should go that much higher, and if it does just ride it out. As great of game as this is it isn't going to sell 20M. COD4 was/is huge on both consoles and isn't even at 10M combined worldwide. 2M of PS3 user base is Japan and I don't expect this game to sell well over there. The attachment rate would have to be insane to reach 19M.
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Good point. The market always seems to overvalue "famous" stocks around release date (people caught up in the hype), so I wouldn't be surprised to see GTA4 get pumped up to 20M combined right around release. You can wait out then short but currently at 19M combined you are limited to upside risk, no way this should go that much higher, and if it does just ride it out. As great of game as this is it isn't going to sell 20M. COD4 was/is huge on both consoles and isn't even at 10M combined worldwide. 2M of PS3 user base is Japan and I don't expect this game to sell well over there. The attachment rate would have to be insane to reach 19M.