Is it reasonable to expect Fallout 3 on the Xbox 360 to outsell the PC version by nearly x2.5 when the PC is the native platform for the franchise and we have been proven wrong several times (ie Crysis and S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chernobyl) that PC gaming is not dead, just thatAmerica does not account for as large a percentage of sales. Either the PC stock is highly undervalued or the Xbox 360 stock is overvalued. It is probably a combination of both. For a RPG being released on three different platforms, which contain the same audience to some degree, either by PS3 w/ PC, PS3 w/ Xbox 360 or PC w/ Xbox 360 or all three, this stock (the Xbox 360 version) seems overvalued.
Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion released during a time when there were few good Xbox 360 games (and nearly no good RPGs for the Xbox 360), so it was able to benefit from a relatively blue ocean. On the other hand Fallout 3 will be released in a relatively red ocean, though that ocean is larger than the one Oblivion occupied.
This stock is overvalued, as I doubt an RPG (that is not a platform exclusive ala Final Fantasy) will be able to command enough of an audience on all three platforms to push one single platform to over 3 million in sales, while leaving the other two platforms, one of which is growing in popularity worldwide and the other with a much larger install base than the Xbox 360, to sell nearly a third less.
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Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion released during a time when there were few good Xbox 360 games (and nearly no good RPGs for the Xbox 360), so it was able to benefit from a relatively blue ocean. On the other hand Fallout 3 will be released in a relatively red ocean, though that ocean is larger than the one Oblivion occupied.
This stock is overvalued, as I doubt an RPG (that is not a platform exclusive ala Final Fantasy) will be able to command enough of an audience on all three platforms to push one single platform to over 3 million in sales, while leaving the other two platforms, one of which is growing in popularity worldwide and the other with a much larger install base than the Xbox 360, to sell nearly a third less.