@vGInfidel, You raised a good point. I forgot that there are significant rental market and used-game market in US. It make it difficult to predict things.
Let's see : 15 Million LIVE user vs. 28 Million X360 userbase, which means online is about 55% of userbase. Of course, COD4 with its excellent multiplayer through LIVE feature would have higher than normal % of online player. This is the reason I think only 10% - 20% of them are not online.
On the other hand, I believe that the excellent multiplayer (evidence by the fact that COD4 are almost always in X360 Top 10 weekly figure, up to COD5 release) means that the factor of rent and second hand are minimized (if people are still playing it 1 year after release, they wouldn't sell it, and they also would buy the actual game after renting it first). All in all, I believe that those factors neutralized each other (10% - 20% of online players are from renting and used game), so I believe that the GLS should be 10 Million.
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You raised a good point. I forgot that there are significant rental market and used-game market in US. It make it difficult to predict things.
Let's see : 15 Million LIVE user vs. 28 Million X360 userbase, which means online is about 55% of userbase. Of course, COD4 with its excellent multiplayer through LIVE feature would have higher than normal % of online player. This is the reason I think only 10% - 20% of them are not online.
On the other hand, I believe that the excellent multiplayer (evidence by the fact that COD4 are almost always in X360 Top 10 weekly figure, up to COD5 release) means that the factor of rent and second hand are minimized (if people are still playing it 1 year after release, they wouldn't sell it, and they also would buy the actual game after renting it first). All in all, I believe that those factors neutralized each other (10% - 20% of online players are from renting and used game), so I believe that the GLS should be 10 Million.
Anything else I missed ?