There is no way Sony, MS, and Nintendo would proactively agree on delivering their games over a single platform, no matter who owned it. They will only follow that path if they have to, i.e. if a service like OnLive becomes incredibly popular.
Otherwise in the short term (the next generation) I still see 3 separate consoles with possibly all games delivered (for purchase) over the Internet, and playable without needing to be connected to the Internet.
Of course if one of the actual console companies extremely dominated and another was not making profit, a situation much more different than even now with the Wii [where Sony & MS will still be profitable], only then would one of them potentially join a console company that might have established their own platform digital delivery system.
But a third party may be more likely to succeed. The 3 companies would prefer to either do it themselves or join a 3rd party so much more than joining a rival.
I'm not saying it won't happen, it just probably won't happen easily or the way some might envision. But 2 generations from now, I'd say it would almost definitely happen.
I think Pachter likes to make far sided predictions simply for the chance of them coming true, makes him look that much better at predicting. Whereas if they don't, people could say, well he was almost right and no one else predicted it so...
I also don't see PS4 releasing as late as 2015. I think Sony will definitely wait longer than previous generations or at least try to, but 9 years before it's even launched, I seriously doubt that. If that was in their plans at all, then they should be talking about an even longer lifespan for PS3 right now lol.
5 years for PS1, 6 years for PS2, PS3 would probably be around 6-7 years before a successor.
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Otherwise in the short term (the next generation) I still see 3 separate consoles with possibly all games delivered (for purchase) over the Internet, and playable without needing to be connected to the Internet.
Of course if one of the actual console companies extremely dominated and another was not making profit, a situation much more different than even now with the Wii [where Sony & MS will still be profitable], only then would one of them potentially join a console company that might have established their own platform digital delivery system.
But a third party may be more likely to succeed. The 3 companies would prefer to either do it themselves or join a 3rd party so much more than joining a rival.
I'm not saying it won't happen, it just probably won't happen easily or the way some might envision. But 2 generations from now, I'd say it would almost definitely happen.
I think Pachter likes to make far sided predictions simply for the chance of them coming true, makes him look that much better at predicting. Whereas if they don't, people could say, well he was almost right and no one else predicted it so...
I also don't see PS4 releasing as late as 2015. I think Sony will definitely wait longer than previous generations or at least try to, but 9 years before it's even launched, I seriously doubt that. If that was in their plans at all, then they should be talking about an even longer lifespan for PS3 right now lol.
5 years for PS1, 6 years for PS2, PS3 would probably be around 6-7 years before a successor.