A few comments back you asked what people shorting this stock were thinking. Since I am doing that (and loosing a lot of DKP), I figured I would explain my logic.
First of all, I don't think of this game being too different than Harvest Moon in style, though I agree the Animal Crossing series does have better quality and mass market appeal. Still, I figured that if Harvest Moon has trouble getting a stock price above 50, how is AC going to stay above 250. That was what gave me the idea to short.
My logic went further than that, though, I really am not sure if this will sell 2.5M. We haven't seen any information yet except that it will be online capable. I worry about games that mainly focusing on getting the system online. They end up being shallow with medium quality. Kirby's air ride is an example (which sold 1.5M....). I think that if they focus on remaking the CG Animal Crossing with online play, it could get the "I played that" response from most people. Also I don't see it fitting with the Wii crowd well. AC is a time waster.. a HUGE time waster, I probably put in 150 hours on the first one. I don't see that fitting with the Wii's casual attitude. Sure AC is a casual time waster, but its still a time waster. You can probably all bust me on that last point.
As I am writing this, I am thinking more about this game, and kind of changing my opinions on it. It could be cool with Mii's as characters (the guys from the first game were pretty close) and even re-doing the first game with Wii controls would probably sell well.
I guess I was just thinking that this game would be the same as the first, with Wii controls, and the ability to leave objects for your friends online. I didn't think that was deserving of better sales than the first one.
Finally, I will also admit to shorting the stock at the end of day one. IPO's typically increase for about the first 24 hrs, then decrease some on the second day, and go back up to a more normal value on day 3. I was figuring on that happening, so I thought I would get out of my short position at the end of day 2 after I made some quick cash. I figured that, even though I had a bad feeling about this stock, it was too early to predict how many it would sell, so I didnt want to hold on to it long term either holding or shorting. My plan didnt work, and I think I will be getting out of this stock as soon as I can.
3
A few comments back you asked what people shorting this stock were thinking. Since I am doing that (and loosing a lot of DKP), I figured I would explain my logic.
First of all, I don't think of this game being too different than Harvest Moon in style, though I agree the Animal Crossing series does have better quality and mass market appeal. Still, I figured that if Harvest Moon has trouble getting a stock price above 50, how is AC going to stay above 250. That was what gave me the idea to short.
My logic went further than that, though, I really am not sure if this will sell 2.5M. We haven't seen any information yet except that it will be online capable. I worry about games that mainly focusing on getting the system online. They end up being shallow with medium quality. Kirby's air ride is an example (which sold 1.5M....). I think that if they focus on remaking the CG Animal Crossing with online play, it could get the "I played that" response from most people. Also I don't see it fitting with the Wii crowd well. AC is a time waster.. a HUGE time waster, I probably put in 150 hours on the first one. I don't see that fitting with the Wii's casual attitude. Sure AC is a casual time waster, but its still a time waster. You can probably all bust me on that last point.
As I am writing this, I am thinking more about this game, and kind of changing my opinions on it. It could be cool with Mii's as characters (the guys from the first game were pretty close) and even re-doing the first game with Wii controls would probably sell well.
I guess I was just thinking that this game would be the same as the first, with Wii controls, and the ability to leave objects for your friends online. I didn't think that was deserving of better sales than the first one.
Finally, I will also admit to shorting the stock at the end of day one. IPO's typically increase for about the first 24 hrs, then decrease some on the second day, and go back up to a more normal value on day 3. I was figuring on that happening, so I thought I would get out of my short position at the end of day 2 after I made some quick cash. I figured that, even though I had a bad feeling about this stock, it was too early to predict how many it would sell, so I didnt want to hold on to it long term either holding or shorting. My plan didnt work, and I think I will be getting out of this stock as soon as I can.