I'm sorry this is your last post Argon. You're a good trader and it was entertaining watching you take SERAPHrowen and Barfo for millions in the heaviest days of Project HAMMER trading. Good players like yourself will always be missed.
I agree with you that there is a very high chance that Sadness is vaporware. I am not arguing you on that point. I have never said there was a publisher and I agree that things definitely seem a little sketchy.
However, again, none of that really matters. Like I said in my last post, the value of stocks listed on the simExchange are based on the assumption that all games will be released, and there is a very good reason why that is the case here on the exchange. It's not simply to prop up stocks.
The reason why canceled games are not set to zero is because if that was true, prices on all games would then be artificially depressed due to cancellation risk. The pricing of every stock on the exchange would be skewed and discounted if we also had to worry about stocks being delisted at zero. To ensure that market pricing was as accurate as possible the ruling was simply to refund transactions if a game was confirmed to be cancelled.
These rulings are all clearly stated in the original blog post and I urge you and anyone who is new to read the rulings on delayed and canceled games.
Oh and thanks for the education, but I've already been over time value of money. In fact that's a big reason why going short on Sadness right now is such a poor investment, especially at 10 DKP. To profit on all your shorts at that level, not only does this game actually have to be released, but you will amost surely have to wait until 2009 to get some indication that this title was a total bust and will sell less than 100,000 worldwide. I hope you understand that by going short such a huge amount that you are also losing time value. If you don't understand that I too hope you don't invest in the real markets.
Sorry to end on a sour note, I hope you reconsider retirement. Good competition makes for a good game.
The fact that this game is vaporware and has no publisher should materially affect this stock. You are assuming they have a publisher, when the fact is this group lost their publisher a few months ago and have not publicly announced a replacement. With no publisher, there is no marketing, and zero sales.
The fact is that the rules are skewed to effectively prop up dead stocks by assuming they will be released, and we've had no concrete proof whatsoever that this game is even actively being developed other than a web site and developer comments.
And if you don't think a delay until 2009 should affect the stock price, I hope you don't invest in the real markets. You should read up on the time value of money. The fact that this exchange doesn't have a risk-free interest bearing account is another flaw which keeps stock prices stagnant.
Hotel Dusk was made by a real developer with a track record, and published by Nintendo themselves. There's absolutely no comparison there.
Well I'm out. This will be my last post here and last day in the market. It's been fun.
BTW, in my humble opinion, the simExchange has declined in quality since metacritic and monthly futures. It sucked all the liquidity out of the market and there's none left for real game stocks anymore.
I agree that 150 thousand copies sounds odd low, so if I had money right now for a long run and I would do stock trading, this would be also a buy for me.
The value of stocks listed on the simExchange are based on the assumption that all games will be released. So it shouldn't matter at all if you think this game is vaporware. Additionally, it matters little to me when this game was announced or how far the release date is pushed back. Here's the old blog post which discusses cancellations and delays.
However I believe that if Sadness is actually released it should sell more than 150,000 copies even if it turns out that Sadness is just a lame Resident Evil clone. For example, other mature fare like quickie ports Godfather and Scarface were projected have sold 180-190K each. There's even another really poor title named Manhunt 2 and it's projected to sell 500,000 copies and that's riding on pretty much just hype and controversy, maybe Sadness could do the same
In fact if Sadness is any good at all it could sell far greater than 150,000. It's actually funny that you mention black and white adventure games from unproven developers. Oddly enough there was another game which fits exactly that description, it's called Hotel Dusk and it was delisted recently with a final prediction of 447,500 copies sold.
In my opinion I think Sadness is a terrible short right now at 15 DKP. All the risk is to the upside and it's unlikely that this will fall further until some hard numbers come out to show that it should and like you said that may not be till 2009. In fact Sadness at this level is my new favorite speculative long and now has my full support.
I'm sorry Argon if you are going to suffer margin calls because of our trades but that's not my responsibility. I fail to see how I am the bully in this situation. If anybody was throwing their money around trying to push a stock down it was you. I merely took advantage of the numerous orders which you made available at 10 DKP. It's not my intention to bully anybody but I will take your money if I think you are giving it away.
I figured he would do something similar since he's the only one with 5-6 million DKP to spare on a dead end stock, so I checked his account status before I made my trades and noticed he didn't have any position on this game, and now he has a bullish lifetime prediction. BULLISH! A black & white adventure game from an unproven developer with no publisher slated for early 2009, that we haven't heard from in over a year?
Blame me for trying to push this stock down to a reasonable level given what we know. Its fair value is close to zero! There's no reason any rational investor would believe this game isn't vaporware. We are close to the end of the year, if we don't get a gameplay video I think the market should bail on this stock.
If zukaus is allowed to bully rational investors like me into margin calling, I give up on this exchange.
This game faces a delay to 2009, according to Nibris themselves. We haven't seen so much as one screenshot and the game was announced OVER A YEAR AGO!
Out of every game in this entire exchange, this game is the most vaporware-ish.
Inexplicably, zukaus bought over 5 million DKP worth of this stock from me at 10-15DKP. Do you really have faith in this game selling over 100k or are you trying to force me to have margin calls and buy the stock back (which would be market manipulative behavior)? I eagerly await your answer.
No publisher announced, not one screenshot/video has been released yet, and its a completely unknown and unproven developer with a history of cancelling games (Raid Over the River for Wii). All I'm saying is that 30DKP is awful pricey for a game that may be cancelled any day now, and even if it does get released, it's overly optimistic to think a niche 3rd party title like this can break 300k copies.
5
I'm sorry this is your last post Argon. You're a good trader and it was entertaining watching you take SERAPHrowen and Barfo for millions in the heaviest days of Project HAMMER trading. Good players like yourself will always be missed.
I agree with you that there is a very high chance that Sadness is vaporware. I am not arguing you on that point. I have never said there was a publisher and I agree that things definitely seem a little sketchy.
However, again, none of that really matters. Like I said in my last post, the value of stocks listed on the simExchange are based on the assumption that all games will be released, and there is a very good reason why that is the case here on the exchange. It's not simply to prop up stocks.
The reason why canceled games are not set to zero is because if that was true, prices on all games would then be artificially depressed due to cancellation risk. The pricing of every stock on the exchange would be skewed and discounted if we also had to worry about stocks being delisted at zero. To ensure that market pricing was as accurate as possible the ruling was simply to refund transactions if a game was confirmed to be cancelled.
These rulings are all clearly stated in the original blog post and I urge you and anyone who is new to read the rulings on delayed and canceled games.
Oh and thanks for the education, but I've already been over time value of money. In fact that's a big reason why going short on Sadness right now is such a poor investment, especially at 10 DKP. To profit on all your shorts at that level, not only does this game actually have to be released, but you will amost surely have to wait until 2009 to get some indication that this title was a total bust and will sell less than 100,000 worldwide. I hope you understand that by going short such a huge amount that you are also losing time value. If you don't understand that I too hope you don't invest in the real markets.
Sorry to end on a sour note, I hope you reconsider retirement. Good competition makes for a good game.