This is a pretty delayed version of a game that already didn't get a huge amount of buzz after its release on the PS3. At least with Army of Two, the buyers don't know what they are getting into yet =). I think Army of Two stocks are on the high side as well.
i kind of don't doubt that it will sell a million though. the 360's gamers tend to buy every game that comes out (grossly simplified statement). and this selling a million isn't out of the question if a game like army of two is going to sell 1.4mil (according to at-time-of-post TSE numbers)
It is possible that the system could suffer from exhaustion in this genre, but with Epic already having created a hit for Microsoft, and the fact that they can market this game under the banner of being from the creators of Gears of War, will possibly allow it to push ahead of the pack and stand out. Also, this game has the Unreal Tournament name behind it, which is well respect.
I do not believe that the news of a timed exclusive ( I already knew about it at the time of the post) will hurt this game. First, the PS3 will not have as many systems when this game is released on that system as the Xbox360 will have when this game is released on it. From this I think the news of it not coming out this year due to a timed exclusive will actually help it, since the Xbox360 will have a chance to gain even more consoles due to the winter boost (and the likely boost due to Halo 3) so that when this game is released it will actually fair better than if it had been released earlier. Also, if they release it during a drought (possibly in January or next summer) they could seize upon a more open market rather than having to face competition for people's attention during the winter/Christmas season.
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This is a pretty delayed version of a game that already didn't get a huge amount of buzz after its release on the PS3. At least with Army of Two, the buyers don't know what they are getting into yet =). I think Army of Two stocks are on the high side as well.