@Powertrade, weakness in this stock continues after very disappointing NPD numbers. This is the second month in a row market expectations were shattered, but the first month only lead to a slight haircut in the stock. The question now is the stock going to stabilize around these levels or go down further with an expectation that sales are not going to pick up. If the game averages 125k sales a month, that's 8 months to make 1 million, and a long time to make 7 million. Granted, we must consider international sales as well. We know the legs for this will be long...but are they this long?
Looks like Brain Age 2 severely missed our forecast again with only 141,200 copies. The stock is overvalued--we are way optimistic about how this is selling.
I think the first Brain Age game didn't get much attention in the US market, and NOA was grilled by the Japanese HQ for its poor reception.
However, the game does exceptionally well in every other region.
I think it's the same situation with Brain Age 2. It's doing rather well in Japan (19th this week), UK (4th this week) and other regions. I think this game will do rather well over its lifetime.
Taking opening week sales from VGC as a trend only, this game does not appear to be selling as fast as we thought. I have to say that on further thought it makes sense. The type of person who buys a Brain Age game isn't likely to be a hardcore fan who will queue up to buy it on the first week. I have no doubt this game will sell huge over it's lifetime but that is because it has legs like a giraffe.
Sales comparisons are hard for Brain Age 2. We can't compare it to Brain Age 1 sales in the US because Brain Age was a new IP then and the series is much bigger now. We can't compare it to Brain Age 2 sales in Japan because the game was released during the holiday season and Brain Age is considerably bigger is Japan. I posted the data just to put things in perspective. I think we can expect the game to sell a lot more than Brain Age 1 in the US, but not as much as Brain Age 2 in Japan. I would say 300K, but that's nothing more than a guess.
This game will be released on August 20, so will be avaliable for around two weeks in the August NPD period.
i have nothing but love for the series, but i just don't see half a million in one month happening. I don't have any actual numbers on the first game (i would love to see them though if anyone else does) ... but i just remember all the podcasts after it came out that repeatedly talked about how much fun it was for a week, but then they never picked it up again. i wonder how many people have this same feeling, and if they do i doubt they will go for round 2.
thoughts? ... or does anyone have any sales info we could base this on from the first game?
For how big a title this is, I am surprised so few people participated in the Phase 1 IPO of this future and the number of comments on the game in general. There haven't even been any comments since before the stock IPOed last week! Has this listing been totally under the radar?
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Wait for december! Thats where brainage sold. thats where brain age 2 will sell.